Dan Michalski's blog

LAS VEGAS--Ahh, it's just like old times. It seems like only yesterday a few months ago the PokerBlog crew was raising some serious ruckus at the WSOP. Now, many of us are back, for some delightful commiseration at the WPBT Winter Classic. I have yet to step foot on the Strip, but am headed that way. So you can expect some SERIOUS hand-by-hand coverage/drinking.

More TK ...

The latest Pokerati poll takes an unscientific look at the effects of bad poker legislation on human behavior. I thought a few PBvians might also find it interesting ... Feel free to discuss:

Since the enactment of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, I

• Play about the same as before, just on different sites: 32% (48)
• Have not played any online poker at all: 16% (25)
• [Have engaged in destructive sexual behavior]*¹: 13% (20)
• Play more now at illegal cardrooms¹: 11% (17)
• Have said "fuck it" and now engage in illegal online sports betting as well: 10% (15)
• Play a little, but not nearly as much as before.: 8% (12)
• Still playing at Bodog who loves US players.¹: 5% (8)
• Played more than usual to grind out the deposit bonus from moving all the money to a site still accepting US players¹: 3% (4)
• Still playing at UltimateBet, as always¹: 1% (2)
• Have switched to online horse racing / Lotto: 1% (1)

Started: November 10, 2006
Total Votes: 152

The internet poker forums are abuzz with rumor that PartyPoker is preparing for a surprise return to the United States in early 2007. Though we here at PokerBlog have many good friends at Party (at least for a little while longer, as they gave us the chip you see at the top of the blog), we have nothing resembling confirmation from headquarters.

Take a look at the original RGP post, and you might find it suspect. After all, not only does the poster call himself "Neal the REAL DEAL", but also his email address is daytrader28@... so he could easily be a "day trader" trying to start a little buzz to see if he's capable of pumping up the stock demand over the weekend. He also happens to be the same guy who posted that Sen. Bill Frist is set to be indicted "this week" ... but looking through the political blogosphere, I find nothing mentioned of an actual indictment. Even the political wonks talking about Frist (scroll down to the bottom) mention nothing of legal developments.

But again, the forums sure are chattering ... more here [pocket fives], and here [pokernews forums]. And though I haven't talked directly to any of our good friends at Party (they drink, too, of course, so they've long-started the Euro-weekend) um ... uh ... well, like I said, they drink too. So we should hear something, and we'll let you know what we can.

Circumstantially speaking, it all seems plausible ... even beyond the suddenly amped-up presence of Kirk Kerkorian on the gaming-biz scene, there's bits of gossip about recent Party big-whig canoodling in Las Vegas, so we'll see.

But on the flop, we're saying: coinflip.

There's been a lot of talk about how big -- or small -- the next World Series main event field will be. Pokerati ran a poll a couple weeks ago to set the over/under at 4,001. And here at PokerBlog, the Shrink reports on a European betting line that anticipates a similar number. Harrah's, however, is being a bit more optimistic ... telling potential vendors at the Gaming Expo (which runs in an adjacent ballroom during the first days of the main event) to expect another record year, with "nearly 10,000" buy-ins. (See page 7.)

Pat the Tablemaker, however, isn't quite buyin' it. He suspects they are more likely trying to justify nearly doubling the price of booth space -- which may or may not be an attempt to compensate for a reduced presence from major online poker sites. Regardless, the questionable numbers have at least some of the "mom and pop" poker bizzers wondering if the 2007 WSOP will be worth their while:

As loyal readers know, there was a lot of head-bumping between the media and WSOP officials this summer -- as Harrah's set up a bunch of new rules designed with the main event in mind that made things difficult for those of us covering the other five weeks worth of events.

While lots of us bitched, I've contended that the real test will be how they handle the 2007 WSOP -- because so much was new to Jeffrey Pollack and his team in 2006. It appears Harrah's may be making a move in the right direction, as they just sent me (and presumably several other PokerBloggers) a survey asking our opinions on how things were handled. But what I am wondering ... have they already brought on a new media-handling team?

For at least the past two years, everything from credentials to interview requests were handled through a company called TBC -- Trahan, Burden, Charles. But this survey -- and really, it asked some good questions -- came from an email at RDSCypress.com. It looks like RDS (Research Design Specialists) might just be a sub-sub-contractor, but I can't be sure. We'll see if we can find out for you -- and ourselves -- of course. But in the meantime, glad to see Harrah's Entertainment recognizing that having several dozen grumpy old men/women writing about one of their premier events isn't really in anyone's best interest.

DALLAS--At least three poker rooms in Dallas got raided this evening. Don't know many details yet ... but for you Dallas players reading us, you won't find any action tomorrow at Jackie's, JB's, nor Ace-High.

Normally I would be covering this sorta thing in detail over at Pokerati ... where we've got a very Texas-centric readership ... and maybe would put up a small post here at PokerBlog to let you know about it. But it just so happens, as Dallas Police moved in on rooms in three separate parts of town, the Dallas-based web-site happens to have gone down.

More details about arrests, tickets, and machine guns TK. If not on Pokerati, then here, on PokerBlog.

Oh, also ... WSOP Media Guy / PokerStars expatriate Nolan Dalla happens to be in town, and I can't get in touch with him, as my email is not working either. If any PBvian happens to talk to him in the very near future, please pass on that I am sorry, but one of those great games I mentioned ... up, probably isn't going to make tomorrow, fyi.

Reposted for today, Election Day.

Hey Shrink, check it out ... I started putting together an election cheat-sheet a few days ago over at Pokerati with the names of distinctly pro-poker candidates who probably deserve our votes. (We'll bring it back to the top of the blog on Tuesday.)

I started with Texas because that's the ballot I know ... but eventually added other states. Am reprinting it here with hopes that PokerBlog's broader readership might also find it useful and can help fill in some blanks, as I am sure I didn't get everyone who might have an important say on the future of "America's Game":

On the Ballot: Poker Referendum

Election Day is upon us. Don't know about you, but we're still a little on tilt here, politically at least ... so the plan is to vote aggressively. Below are candidates for public office who have affirmatively shown themselves to be on the right side of poker. Remember, it's your duty as a citizen/player to remain mindful of position as you cast your ballot.

NOTE: This is a growing list, so please let us know via comment or email of any other candidates who might deserve either a Pokerati endorsement or electoral scorn for their specific poker-related actions. For a detailed list of those whom you should vote against for their clearly disrespecting the game and/or close ties to known anti-poker extremists, click here. The PPA also contributed to this report.

The Mizpah Hotel & Casino in Reno (Tonopah to be exact) just burned down late last night. Apparently a woman set her mattress on fire, and that led to the total destruction of the historic building. Six dead (so far) and dozens injured. Murder charges pending.

Though I doubt there's a connection, I find it interesting that the hotel was put up for sale on craigslist.org. (The ad has since been taken down.)

More here.

And a little history here. The 5-story Mizpah was built in 1908 and turned into a hotel in 1922. It was the tallest building in Nevada until 1929.

Marcus from I'm not sure where wrote in a while back wondering:

Dan,

Long time reader, first time writer. I was reading today about the PPV offering of ESPN of the final table tomorrow. My question is, how are they going to prevent people from watching the coverage and relaying the information to the players in the tourney. I'm sure that this has been thought out, but I have not seen any blogs or news explaining what all will be on the PPV (pocket cams, etc.) or if there will be a delay.

Any inside info?

Thanks,
Marcus

Marcus, that is a great question. And truth be told, I don't really know the answer. But I bet someone here does. I am thinking the live coverage had to be done on a 5- or 10-minute delay, similar to the various "live" events put on by Full Tilt and Fox Sports. I do know that the TV's showing the final table at the Rio simply didn't show what the hole-card cams were seeing.

Actually, if I recall, while listening to Phil Gordon in the media room, I DO seem to remember knowing when Jamie Gold was bluffing, and when Allen Cunningham ran into a very unlucky river. But since we were sitting some 100 years or more away from the action, I am not certain what sorta delay there was. Amy? Shrink? Jen B.? Do any of you have some hard facts on this? It's a relevant question as I expect/hope to see more "live" coverage in the future.

Poker Shrink might find this interesting ... apparently there was some Jimmy Sommerfield-esque reseating going on in the main event of Festa al Lago earlier this month. In a nutshell, once they got down to like 99 players, Jack McClelland (whom Jimmy Sommerfield credits with teaching him all he knows about tourney direction) had the players redraw for seats every time they lost nine players. It seemed odd and there was a bit of grumbling ... and eventually Mike Matusow "went ballistic" and received a penalty. This led to the field chanting "Let Mike play! Let Mike play!" -- though they wouldn't join him in his commands for no one to play another hand.

In the end, Matusow was allowed back in the tourney before his penalty was up, and McClelland explained that the extra reseating was an effort to address some apparent collusion going on in this big-money tourney.

I learned about this from poker pro Tom Schneider (who cashed). Click here to hear his retelling of the incident on "Beyond the Table" (starting at 8:14).

POKER STOCKS seem to be coming back, as you can see ... and today the big talk is about a possible merger between PARTYGAMING and 888. [thisismoney.co.uk]

More here. [Reuters]

Estimated merger value: $3 billion. [Forbes]

Add SPORTINGBET to the mix and ... "Such a merger would allow each to bring to the table their own specialisation - Sportingbet (Sportsbetting), 888 (Casinos) and PartyGaming (Poker) - in the process creating an online super group." [bettingmarket.com]

But for now, officially, Party is merely "considering" the merger. Other possible bedfellows include GAMESYS and VICTOR CHANDLER. [BBC]

Meanwhile, the spread of poker to ASIA (semi-direct from Texas) is underway. (Note: AKHIL GUPTA is not his real name.) [Asia Times]

Oh, also, must-click ... an interesting analysis of PARTY ECONOMICS with a particular look at SPORTINGBET'S different approach to weathering the UIGEA storm. [Freakonomics.com]
Thanks, April, for the link!

TOM SCHNEIDER and KARRIDY discussed similar quetions about Party's business decisions with YOUR BELOVED PB EDITOR on "BEYOND THE TABLE" (starting at 3:40). Click here to open the podcast. [HoldemRadio.com]

As always during this era of Poker Reconstruction, more to come ...

PokerBlog at the Final Table: It was good times at Casa de April, site of a $20 No-Limit Hold'em freezeout held in honor of her 30th birthday. Though the event featured no online qualifiers, we're proud to report that (L to R) April, yours truly, and Amy all made the final table(!) -- with April winning the whole dang thing.
















AUSTIN, Texas--OK, actually she chopped a $140 prize pool with the second-place finisher. But hey, since it was April's party and we were using her table, chips, and cards, tournament officials awarded her the title and the coveted victory Tuaca shot. Big ups for the impressive PokerBlogger play and festive consumption of our favorite bonus code! Much fun was had by all, even though CardPlayer wasn't there to cover it.

The birthday tourney wasn't the only reason for a Halloween-weekend trip to the Texas capitol, however ...

Also on the Austin agenda were very important meetings drinks with some professional lobbyists, seasoned political advisors, and at least one Congressional candidatate -- part of a continuing effort to figure out where exactly online poker went wrong in the U.S. and what the poker industry might-should do moving forward. While the launch party for a new hipster website (Do512.com) may not seem like the best place to devise legislative strategy, introducing influential politicos to the greatness of Tuaca is probably more important to the future of poker than some might think.

The PartyGaming stock curve seems to be flattening. Phew -- looks like poker isn't gonna totally disappear after all.

Meanwhile, THE E.U. is looking particularly juicy.

And business analysts credit EUROPEAN MARKET PENETRATION as the reason for Party's latest "up" days.

The Motley Fool takes a look at online gaming stocks (and others that took big hits recently) and concludes: Investors should take REGULATORY THREATS seriously.

As loyal readers know, we love PartyPoker here at PokerBlog ... and even though they've left the United States, the goings-on at PartyGaming are still a major part of the worldwide poker equation. Here's the latest on our good friends at PRTY.L:

Stock price opens in the HIGH 20s today (Tuesday) ... and [UPDATE] starts the day up about 4 percent..

At least one European investment bank -- DRESDNER KLEINWORT EQUITY -- still believes Party to be a good buy.

Here's more on what FINANCIAL ANALYSTS are saying.

Story in The Sunday Times (London) about two PartyGaming BOARD MEMBERS who suddenly can't travel to the United States without FEAR OF ARREST.

The American office that spearheaded this reality claims they are doing a good thing while apologizing for turning more law-abiding individuals into criminals out the other side of their mouths.

The man behind The Agitator has a good piece on FoxNews about why the Republican-led assault on overseas online gaming companies is bad for the GO-Party.

Party released its 3Q FINANCIAL STATEMENT on Friday, spelling out new realities, including the $250 million cost in shutting down American operations.

PartyGaming's CEO MITCH GARBER explains Party's recent moves and his belief that there's a 50 percent chance that Party will be welcomed back (legally) in the United States within three years ... and says to expect more industy changes in the next 30-60 days, all while Party aggressively pursues new acquisitions.

GAMBLING911, however, doesn't share so positive an outlook. (We think they're still hurting in the feelings.)

Meanwhile, PartyGaming's favorite American senator BILL FRIST has announced he's leaving the Senate, has restored the good standing of his temporarily questionable medical license, and has been named "America's Most Outstanding Leader" by an organization that at least 10 million Americans obviously now can't take seriously.

I ran an unscientific poll last week over at Pokerati asking folks (mostly American poker geeks) what changes in the legal landscape mean to them. Click here for the complete results. The important parts ...

In the face of illegal online gambling, I plan to:

• Remove all money from my online poker accounts immediately.: 38% (49)
• Keep playing like usual, at least until my ISP stops me.: 38% (49)
• Do as much research as possible on potential back alleys and loopholes, then open one up in an attempt to criminally profit.: 6% (8)
• Move.: 4% (5)
• Play only at legal brick and mortar casinos.: 5% (7)

Total Votes: 129

Also found this old one, run back in June, kinda interesting ...

The first year we'll see a decline in the number of entries to the main event of the WSOP is:

• 2008-2010: 56% (15)
• none of the above: 11% (3)
• 2006: 7% (2)
• 2007: 4% (1)
• 2011-2020: 4% (1)

Total Votes: 27

Las Vegas casino mogul Steve Wynn was a happy man ... showing off an original Picasso (Le Reve, 1932) that he had just agreed to sell for $139 million -- "the most money ever paid for a painting," he bragged. Then, as he was telling a group of onlookers the artwork's storied history and pointing out its phallic imagery ... his arm went into the air and his elbow went right through it. Put a hole the size of a silver dollar in the middle of Picasso's mistress's forearm. Yeow.

The new issue of the New Yorker has a story on the mishap, and blogger Nora Ephron witnessed the accidental puncture firsthand. An appraiser puts the damage at $40 million. That almost makes Andy Beal's losses at the Wynn look piddling.

Amid all the legalistic hubbub, a potentially serious situation may or may not have developed over at Ultimate Bet last week ... according to this surprisingly sober thread on StoxPoker, an army of Bots was unleashed on UB. Like more than 40 of them. And though there has been no official confirmation, the original poster's investigative work done with PokerTracker combined with human interaction seems as convincing of anything poker-conspiratorial I've ever read. Click above and judge for yourself.

One of the forum people asks:

Is it against any law to have bots playing? I sure hope so.. it seems like poker sites dont really care.. they gett there share anyway

... and this I think is one of the more interesting issues in play. Because as of now, no ... trying to file charges against Bots (or Bot-makers) seems akin to going to the police trying to get your money back on a crack deal gone awry. But it should be illegal (or at least worthy of legislative consideration). These are the kinds of poker laws that would be good for people. And when it comes to setting legal precedents for the internet in general, combating malicious software will likely be a more important issue in the future.

Link props: Haley (again!) at KAP

Kudos to CardPlayer for stepping up their poker journalism a tad. Their current cover story is a Playboy-style interview with WSOP champ Jamie Gold, and in it they don't try to pretend he's not a controversial character with questionable poker values.

In the interview, he addresses the presence of bodyguards -- you are welcome to believe or not believe his claims that there were Nancy Kerrigan-style threats. (I am pretty sure I heard someone in the hallway scream, "I'm gonna kill that motherfucker!") He also -- scroll down to the end -- directly addresses his dealer tip, or lack thereof ... claiming that everyone who deserves something will get theirs, but he never attached a number to it. Well done, Michael Friedman, for getting him to address these topics.

But the one issue not discussed was his lawsuit with Crispin Leyser.

I'm pretty sure Jamie's "people" set up the interview only on the grounds that he wouldn't be asked about the $6 million he may or may not owe Leyser. Fair enough ... it's common for subjects of lawsuits not to want to comment on pending litigation. But they can't prevent you, as in CardPlayer, from writing about it! Ask Allyn ... she'll tell you ... lawsuits are a public records, and therefore the media has every right to address them in pretty much whatever capacity they see fit. At a minimum, CP shoulda printed something in the story acknowledging the basis of the lawsuit and any interview restrictions pertaining to it. Or, legally speaking, they coulda just agreed to whatever with Jamie Gold and then renegged on the deal.

Meanwhile, other online sites engage in big fat game of Hungry Hungry Hippo trying to scoop up Party players, which until today represented 40+ percent of the worldwide online poker market.

Mike Sexton explains Party's U.S. pullout as part of good-corporate-citizen strategy in an effort to set-up a taxably triumphant return ... while Daniel Negreanu respects the move but wonders if they'll ever get back the players left behind.

(I know a couple poker-room guys in Dallas who know the answer to that -- it's possible, but not easy.)

Bush signs. Says the new law is great for America. At least one democrat calls it a sham.

In preparation for Bush's wielding of his law-signing pen, British-based Sportingbet reportedly just sold its entire US operations for $1.

Good thing you can play online in Canada ... because the Canucks seem kinda serious about busting up brick-and-mortar games there. Just last night police raided four underground rooms in Ottawa.

Despite rumors that it might take another month ... George Bush plans to sign the Safe Ports Act into law today according to the Associated Press -- with fanfare, it seems. But apparently he has no plans to address the anti-internet-gambling component, nor its troublesome enforceability ... though it seems obvious, that with this bill, it will clearly be much safer to board a boat and gamble off shore.

Now it will be left to the banks to figure out whether or not money you transfer to any online payment center (such as Neteller) is being used for gambling. They also will look into requiring ISPs to block access to gambling sites. What constitutes a gambling site, of course, is still to be determined. Gotta think simple links and even banners are protected by that pesky ole First Amendment. But is a link to, say, PartyPoker, still just speech when you also whisper, "Bonus Code: Tuaca"?

Mike Sexton is heading to Washington DC tomorrow to kick off his ex-post-facto lobbying effort and pro-poker media campaign.

ALT HED: Million-Outs March

Harrah's exec to Oliver Tse after his public criticism and Dutch Boyd inflammatories -- week 2 of the 2006 WSOP: "C'mon, Oliver, are you a journalist, or a blogger?"

Oliver's recently launched answer.

2006 WSOP final tableist and 2005 WSOP major-stud Allen Cunningham officially joins the Full Tilt team -- no longer just a "friend of FT". Not sure whether or not this means he has to move to Ireland, but it does mean he'll get to see his face on a lot of T-shirts with the likes of Chris Ferguson, Howard Lederer, Phil Ivey, et al.

ALT HED: The Thirteenth Apostle

Shane in Phoenix writes in with some more info about the new Professional Poker League

Dan,

I went to a Phil Gordon book signing last night and he gave some PPL info. The format will be NLHE 300-600 blinds that don't increase. Starting stack size will be 100K for a total of about 170BB. The league will start Jan 1st.

PS. also took 5 bucks off him at roshambo!

Shane:

Not sure if this is good or bad for poker -- probably neither -- but you may find it interesting that Sen. Bill Frist recently traveled to Afghanistan and voiced support of bringing the Taliban into the Afghan government. Didn't John Walker Lindh get 20 years for something similar?

Daniel Negreanu apparently didn't get the memo about not revealing the results of the first ever professional poker "draft." Cool, now I'm actually curious about it. Click here to read his take on the whole thing. And below are the results. (But remember, shh, don't tell anybody.) Quick question, too ... were there any pro players surprisingly not picked?

Team 1:
Co-Captain- T.J. Cloutier
Co-Captain- Dewey Tomko
1) Chau Giang
16) Danny Alaei
17) Carlos Mortenson
32) Linda Johnson
33) Layne Flack
48) Amir Vahedi

Team 2:
Co-Captain- Chip Reese
Co-Captain- Eli Elezra
2) Patrick Antonious
15) Kenna James
18) Lee Watkinson
31) Men Nguyen
34) Esther Rossi
47) David Williams

Team 3:
Co-Captain- John Juanda
Co-Captain- Erik Seidel
3) Annie Duke
14) Antonio Esfandiari
19) Martin deKnijff
30) John D'Agostino
35) Mimi Tran
46) Phil Gordon

RALEIGH,NC--As mentioned before, Mike Sexton is hitting the road -- and talk-show circuit -- in an attempt to make the poker world's beefs with the Safe Ports Act known to the non-poker public. Kudos, Mike. There's also apparently a players march on Washington DC planned for, er, tomorrow? Not sure how this will go on Columbus Day or whether or not the choice of date will offend Indian casinos. Truth is, even though I am closer to DC today than I was yesterday, I will be shouting out the window about injustice ... but I'm not sure if I will be heard. Seriously, we wish the effort well, but if this is the basket we'll be putting all our eggs in ... well it just shows how little poker players really understand about the American political system.

With that said, it's time for all us bloggers out there to do what we know how to do and virally spread our word.