Math Is Hard

By: April Kyle – August 09, 2006

8773 players x 10,000 in chips = 87,730,000

Total chipcount for the remaining 12 players, per CardPlayer = 92,785,000

Total chipcount for the remaining 12 players, per Harrahs offical count = 88,246,000

What's going on here? Let's toss out the CardPlayer count, if for no other reason than using live chip counts isn't the best way to judge the number of chips really in play. For example, Player A is listed with 1 million in chips, but Player B has 500k, until Player B takes a few chips from A and reaches 750k. Only one count is updated, making the total number of chips look like 1,750,000 when it's really 1,500,000.

But for the offical count to be off too? These are the numbers that players are reporting every night when they bag up their chips. Dealers should be verifying their counts, but I've witnessed bag-ups where the players did the count on their own and the dealers signed off without ever having actually verified the totals. The difference could come from something as simple as that, though I suppose we won't know for sure until we've declared a winner and someone actually sits and counts the chips he's got in front of him once the last hand has been dealt. (Note: I am not volunteering)

So where does the difference come from? I admit I'm surprised, I had a feeling the counts would be off but figured they would be low given the rumors of chip stealing we've heard about. Have chips made their way from one tournament into the main event? As someone pointed out at dinner last night (I apologize, I forget who), when buying into a $1000 event and receiving 1,500 in tourney chips, it can be tempting to remove that 500 and pocket it for a rainy day. I have heard no stories that this has happened, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. And let's not forget, you can pick up 500 tournament chips for a pretty good price on eBay.

When coloring up chips, often there is a variance in the number of chips in play, but even then a 516,000 difference is a bit high (or so I'm being told by my tournament director friends who know far more about these things than I do). I have heard rumors that people returned for another day of play and found their chip stacks either missing a few chips or missing entirely. In those cases, tournament officals are rumored to have replaced the missing chips, again relying on the word of the player to determine the correct count. On the other hand, I've heard reports that player's stacks have been short chips and they've been told there was nothing that could be done.

There's nothing concrete here and no smoking gun that we can point to, but a discrepancy such as this does raise a few eyebrows at least. Or maybe not...players may be so fed up by the other problems they encountered that an issue like chips in play is low on the priority list.

 

FYI, the Card Player numbers weren't "live" counts, but the official counts from the end of the day. Both Card Player and Harrah's got their information from the same source (the counts on the bags), but one or the other (or both) transposed some numbers during data entry.

When we get the official counts tonight, we should be able to sort out which counts were accurate from yesterday. Assuming they don't screw up again ... but I think everyone involved will take (should take?) as many measures as necessary to report the final table chip counts accurately.

It's still possible that the "extra chips" is fewer than reported by me last night. If one CP count is accurate and two of the Harrah's ones are accurate (there were three differences), the "extra" chips will be fewer than 516K.

BJ Nemeth – August 9, 2006 – 1:23am

For the CardPlayer total, I actually added up what they're reporting right now as play goes on, so that's why I gave them the benefit of a doubt.

April Kyle – August 9, 2006 – 1:30am

You're exactly right. My bad!

I saw the math at the top of your post, and assumed you were using my numbers from the end of last night. Next time I'll try reading. :)

Never trust the chip counts for 100% accuracy during play; it's impossible to get an accurate count. During a break (like the dinner break), the chip counts should be official. (I'm assuming that's where you got the final 12 from Harrah's -- from the dinner break.)

It's interesting that the official total from Harrah's matches their official total from last night. That effectively verifies that it was Card Player's numbers that were wrong last night.

And if Card Player can't accurately transfer chip counts from a chip bag, how many other errors are they reporting as "official facts?"

BJ Nemeth – August 9, 2006 – 1:48am

Would the races add or subtract chips? Or should the net effect be neutral?

Good43 – August 10, 2006 – 1:25am

Whenever chips are raced off the tables, chips are only added into play, never removed. If they're coloring up the 25 chips from a table, and there are 5 chips, they will introduce two 100 chips into their play.

Multiply that effect by hundreds of tables, and then dozens when you color up the hundreds, and so on and so on ...

The Harrah's chip count seems to be about 1/2% off of the theoretical starting number. To be honest, I'm not sure if that's a reasonable increase in chip stacks -- my gut tells me it's too high, indicating faulty chip counts or extra chips introduced into play.

But like April said, there's certainly no smoking gun.

BJ Nemeth – August 10, 2006 – 1:54am

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