Yes that actually is a formula for when to bluff. Specifically for when to bluff post-flop in No Limit Texas Hold'em. It comes from a very interesting website and it even has an attached Excel spreadsheet calculator in case your math skills have slipped since algebra. Notice what the skilled mathematician has considered in his equation.
O= The skill level of your opponents (1-10 with 1 being "your neighbor's kids"). Because you can't bluff bad opponents—they'll call even when they shouldn't.
C= How conservative are the opponents who are still in? Again, you can't bluff against loose cannons—they'll call even when they shouldn't.
I= Your table image (1-10 with 10 being "have consistently thrown away everything except for pocket rockets"). If people think you're a loose cannon, they're more likely to call you.
F= The Flop. An ideal bluffing flop is one in which either all three cards are junk, or in which two are junk and one is a high card you can represent.
N= The number of people still in after the flop. No bluffing into a family pot.
P= Your position. You want to act last, ideally after watching everyone check their junk to you.
S= The Strength of other players' hands. This assumes you have some reading skills; don't all the good scientific equations always seem to relie on at least one fundamental assumption? You know like gravity or warp drive.
There's a catch, this equation defines the perfect situation in which to bluff. However, if you're always bluffing in the mathematically perfect situation, your opponents will know you're bluffing! You know it's the old: If he knows I am bluffing then will he think I know he knows or will he know I know he knows I know and therefore.....
Warning: the equation was created as a sample video for a proposed TV show on the SciFi channel (they wanted to see massive geekiness in action). But it comes with a video explanation.
