Comparison

I had several interesting conversations in the last 24 hours about the math involving entrants on the Day 2's of the Series. Surprisingly there is a wide range of opinions about these numbers.

The basic formula we are talking about is this:

Day 1A survivors + Day 1B survivors = Day 2A combined field
Day 1C survivors + Day 1D survivors = Day 2B combined field

Which works out in actual numbers to this:

636 + 615 = 1,251
1026 + 1352 = 2,378

This all comes about because the starting fields for Days 1A & 1B were much smaller than for Days 1C & 1D.

The question is: Are players at any disadvantage starting their Day 2 with a field of 1,250 or 2,378 and if so, why?

What surprised me is that some of the same "mathematical" reasoning goes into arguments that either of the two fields gives some hidden and unfair advantage to the players in that flight. Here are a few of the "facts" I have heard:

As expected Day 1C was a much bigger field than either 1A or 1B. Estimates for tomorrow's Day 1D are all over the board with many predictions of over 2,000*. To match last year's Main Event total the magic number is 1,985*.

Lots of name professionals are playing tomorrow and plenty of other players are coming in after spending the Fourth of July with family and friends. So, "close" will be the operational word tomorrow for all of those over/under wagers* on the total runners in the 2008 World Series of Poker Main Event.

TODAY: 2008 Main Event Day 1C: 1928 entrants [4,373 three day total]
2007 Main Event Day 1C: 1743 entrants [4,575]

2008 Main Event Day 1B: 1158 entrants [2455 two day total]
2007 Main Event Day 1B: 1545 entrants [2832]

2008 Main Event Day 1A: 1297 entrants
2007 Main Event Day 1A: 1287 entrants

2008 Day 1D: Sunday?*
2007 Day 1D: 1783 entrants

*Late/Early reports or Early/Late reports are that the field for Sunday is over 2200 and counting.

This year Day 1B was smaller than Day 1A, unlike 2007 when the field grew each successive day. But we still have two big fields to count on Days 1C & 1D.

In 2007 the final two days had much bigger fields and that is anticipated again this year; some early registration numbers indicate Saturday and Sunday will be much larger.

2008 Main Event Day 1B: 1158 entrants [2455]
2007 Main Event Day 1B: 1545 entrants [2832 two day total]

2008 Main Event Day 1A: 1297 entrants
2007 Main Event Day 1A: 1287 entrants

2008 Day 1C: Saturday?
2007 Day 1C: 1743 entrants

2008 Day 1D: Sunday?
2007 Day 1D: 1783 entrants

A lot of people seemed surprised that today (Day 1A) "only" had as many entrants as last year. Seems like a pretty good number for a Thursday and one full table ahead of last year.

2008 Main Event Day 1A: 1297 entrants
2007 Main Event Day 1A: 1287 entrants

The beginning of the beginning of the end....

Fifty-One bracelets have been handed out; two more are ready to be presented today; the Player of the Year has been determined, congratulations to Erick Lindgren; the Ante Up for Africa event goes off today. Then, finally, we get to the Main Event and we answer most of the questions everyone has waited for.

Will we have more entries than last year?

Will the professionals somehow continue their dominance they have shown thru 53 preliminary events?

Will it all run as smooth as the tournaments have run so far? By the way, nice job to the WSOP staff this was truly a nicely run Series so far. Minor mistakes, quick fixes and overall solid and uniform floor decisions. Kudos to Tournament Director Jack Effel and his WSOP floor staff.

Another great move comes later this week, when the WSOP Media event is brought back with substantial prizes given to the favorite charities of the final table participants. A great solution to that on again off again event.

Then tomorrow we reach the 2008 World Series of Poker $10,000 No Limit Hold'em Main Event. Four Day One flights, two Day Two flights and five more days to play down to the "November Nine" or the "Fall Final". Then all the WSOP eggs go into that ESPN/November basket and we all wait, watch, hope and pray. No matter who you favor in that mass of poker humanity, say a little prayer that at least one or two "names" make it to the final nine. Nothing could be better for poker than to see Scotty, Mike, Phil, Phil, Erick, Jennifer, Antonio, Gus, Daniel, Joe, Johnny** or heaven help us Doyle! make the final table.

It all starts tomorrow.

**Dewey, Cyndy, Bill, Gavin, Carlos, Chris, Doug, Liz, David, Tony, Lyle, Barry, Berry, Huck, Patrik, David, the other Phil and the other Phil, Greg, Layne, Chad, Isabelle, Todd, Freddy, T.J., Michael, Mike again, Ted, Gabe, Andy, Howard, John, John, John or John, Lee, Annie, Eli, Hoyt, Andy or even Jerry.

A short week five to compare as we are now on the threshold of the Main Event. Fifty-three events are in the books or about to be and here are the numbers:

53 Preliminary Events:

25 events had increased entries
15 events had decreased entries
12 events were new tournaments or increased buy-ins
1 tie

Here are the week four comparisons:

2008 Event #48
$2,000 No Limit Hold'em
Number of Entrants: 2,319
2007 Entries: 2,038
(Big increase)

2008 Event #49
$1,500 No Limit Hold'em
Number of Entrants: 2,718
2007 Entries: 3,151
(down over 400 from the old record, but the event was capped so it had no chance of hitting 3,000)

2008 Event #50
$10,000 Pot Limit Omaha
Number of Entrants: 381
2007 Entries: 314
(a strong increase for a $10K event)

2008 Event #51
$1,500 H.O.R.S.E.
Number of Entrants: 803
2007 Entries: 730
(this was a $1,000 S.H.O.E. event last summer)

2008 Event #52
$1,500 No Limit Hold'em
Number of Entrants: 2,693
2007 Entries: new event
(an added 7th $1,500 NLHE event)

2008 Event #53
$1,500 Limit Hold'em Shootout
Number of Entrants: 823
2007 Entries: capped at 720
(the cap was raised this year, so we’ll call this an “other”)

Next, I will be watching the four Day Ones of the Main Event to see where those numbers go.

Week Four Comparison
Week Three Comparison
Week Two Comparison
Week One Comparison

Through 47 events here is how the '08 Series is standing up to the '07 Series:

47 Events to Date:

23 events have increased entries
15 events have decreased
8 events were new tournaments or increased buy-ins
1 tie

Here are the week four comparisons:

2008 Event #38
$2,000 Pot Limit Hold'em
Number of Entrants: 605
2007 Entries: 599
(up a few still counts as UP!)

2008 Event #39
$1,500 No Limit Hold'em
Number of Entrants: 2,720
2007 Entries: 2,778
(down a few still counts as DOWN!)

Day One of the $50,000 Hold'em, Omaha 8, Razz, Stud, Stud Eight or better tournament is in the books. Event #45 of the 2008 World Series of Poker is the fifty thousand dollar World Championship H.O.R.S.E. tournament, which is perhaps even more anticipated than the main event starting next week. The 50K HORSE is a very unique event at the World Series of Poker, here are some random observations from Day One of this truly unusual tournament.