Poker Pro Phil Gordon did a recent interview with those folks over at Freakonomics. Phil has always been an keen observer and no-holds commentator on the real life of the professional poker player. Here are a few of this comments.
Q: What percent of your success would you say is attributable to randomness?
A: Randomness, otherwise known as “variance” at the poker table is much bigger and more important than most poker players realize. I have a simple theory: change 10 river cards in any poker player’s tournament career and I would bet that they would be a losing tournament player for their career.
You might need to set aside players like Doyle Brunson here or maybe just up the number to 20 or 30 but Phil's point is correct. There are several bookkeepers and more than ten chiropractors who would be well known poker professionals today if that one river card had gone the other way. By the same token, there are a couple of guys walking around with a WSOP bracelet on their wrist who should get out before variance brings them down to their true skill level.
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