 So we are about a month past the selection of the November Nine. Being wired into the poker media underground, I decided to remain completely inactive regarding the November WSOP final table and see what came to me. Until the last couple of days, the sum total was nearly nothing. Now we really shouldn't expect a four month blitz of news and interviews; I mean the Super Bowl and the World Cup combined can barely muster a month of meaningless news bytes. But many in the poker world feel the silence has been deafening.
Every player seems to have had a flurry of local newspapers, radio and television interviews; and slowly the various poker websites have begun their obligatory November Nine player pieces. We also expect ESPN to begin to amp up the noise once the early days of the main event begin showing in September.
But let's talk about the one simmering topic that has been making the rounds:
"The November Nine is going to be a flop because it is a table of nobodies."
First, the obvious---yes everyone involved was hoping that one or even two big names or at least recognizable names would make the final table. There were audible expletives muttered as first Hellmuth, then Matusow went out on Day Six and then the last hope, Tiffany Michele, went down in a blaze of sponsorship greed and harassment on Day Seven.
But let me pose a question and then direct you to some discussion on this whole idea of "The Unknown Nine". Outside of insiders in the poker world, the last four final tables have basically had one "known": Lee Watkinson (2007), Allen Cunningham (2006), Mike Matusow (2005), Dan Harrington (2004). Today, however, most of us "know" not just: Jerry Yang, Jamie Gold, Joe Hachem and Greg Raymer, but also Hevad Khan, Paul Wasicka, Steve Dannenmann, Raymond Rahme, Michael Binger, David Williams and perhaps a few more final tablists. So the question is:
"Are these nine players really unknowns?"
We invite you to join a discussion on this topic by clicking here.
By: Lenny – July 18, 2008
 Chipleader Dennis Phillips (26,295,000) is not the odds on favorite to win the WSOP Main Event, he is listed at 5/1 on PartyBets.
Ivan Demidov (24,400,000) with the second largest chipstack has been installed as the favourite to win the November World Series of Poker main event final table. Ivan currently is listed at 3.68/1.
Scott Montgomery (19,690,000) is offered at 6/1.
Peter Eastgate (13,750,000) is 7/1 to win at PartyBets, while David Rheem (10,230,000) is listed today at 9/1. Ylon Schwartz (15,525,000), Darus Suharto (15,2000,000)and Craig Marquis (10,210,000) are all 11/1.
And finally the chances of short stack Kelly Kim (2,620,000) taking down the $9 million prize are rated at 26/1.
Ivan Demidov 3.68*
Dennis Phillips 5.00*
Scott Montgomery 6.00
Peter Eastgate 7.00
David Rheem 9.00
Ylon Schwartz 11.00
Darus Suharto 11.00
Craig Marquis 11.00
Kelly Kim 26.00
*Demidov and Phillips opened as 4/1 co-favourites, apparently some early money came in on the Russian.
 As I mentioned yesterday, this is the official Day Off for the 2008 Main Event. There is a $500 Casino Employees event and a Charity Media Tournament but the only real high or low-lite will be the WSOP News Conference, if anything comes out of that lovefest, we will report details later; otherwise--see you tomorrow for Day 2A of The Greatest Tournament in the World brought to you by Milwaukee's Best Lite.
Day 1D has turned out to be the largest single day field for a World Series Main event. Lindy will get you the final numbers later but it looks like the field is in the neighborhood of 2200, which will surpass the old record from Day 1D of 2006. This means that the '08 Main Event will be larger than '07 and second only to '06.
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With every table in all five locations around the Rio in play today, some of the tables were playing ten-seated. As registration closed after the first two levels the first order of floor business was to break those tables down to nine players before any other tables were broken and players were moved. All-in-all the process went smoothly.
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Today was clearly the Day One of Choice for the professionals, even with the huge number of tables in play, it was easy to stroll through any of the venue sites and spot big names among the online wannabes and the next Jerry Raymer, Chris Yang or Greg Moneymaker.
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Not quite sure why there is an off day tomorrow. Last year the Day 1A & 1B players were back to play Day 2A and then the Day 1C & 1D players were on for Day 2B. Then we had the day off on the 7th day. This year with tomorrow off, it will be Day 2A on Tuesday and Day 2B on Wednesday and Day 3 on Thursday. This means the Day 2B players will have to go back-to-back, while the Day 2A players get another day off. Wonder why?
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Until today I have been impressed by the stamina of the media corps this year. While this has been WSOP-lite for me in 2008, many others were in the trenches every day and the survival rate has been high. Today, I noticed the tell tale signs that a few of my colleagues have been in one place far too long. It's not Vegas, it's one big poker room with the same story over and over. Hard to find the "story of the day" for six straight weeks.
 As expected Day 1C was a much bigger field than either 1A or 1B. Estimates for tomorrow's Day 1D are all over the board with many predictions of over 2,000*. To match last year's Main Event total the magic number is 1,985*.
Lots of name professionals are playing tomorrow and plenty of other players are coming in after spending the Fourth of July with family and friends. So, "close" will be the operational word tomorrow for all of those over/under wagers* on the total runners in the 2008 World Series of Poker Main Event.
TODAY: 2008 Main Event Day 1C: 1928 entrants [4,373 three day total]
2007 Main Event Day 1C: 1743 entrants [4,575]
2008 Main Event Day 1B: 1158 entrants [2455 two day total]
2007 Main Event Day 1B: 1545 entrants [2832]
2008 Main Event Day 1A: 1297 entrants
2007 Main Event Day 1A: 1287 entrants
2008 Day 1D: Sunday?*
2007 Day 1D: 1783 entrants
*Late/Early reports or Early/Late reports are that the field for Sunday is over 2200 and counting.
As expected a much bigger field showed up for this Day 1C on a Saturday. Both the Amazon and the Brazilia rooms at the Rio were near full. Rumors were that Day 1D tomorrow was sold out but we can confirm this is only a rumor and seats remain available for Sunday. Lindy will provide accurate numbers when they become available.
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The Mega Satellites were smaller yesterday but those fields have come back big today too. The 1 PM Mega Satellite was sold out and seats for the 4 PM,6 PM, and 9 PM were going fast.
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Another "two of my favorite players" sighting today. Mike Matusow was playing at the ESPN feature table and doing well. Liz Lieu was also in the field and after a Diva-like tardy arrival, she also was on the upside of the chip race.
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Interesting that some of the media, who came in only for the main event, are now complaining about the long hours. My fellow full-time, full-tournament media friends can only laugh at those who find covering one tournament a day for only five rounds to be a tough assignment.
This year Day 1B was smaller than Day 1A, unlike 2007 when the field grew each successive day. But we still have two big fields to count on Days 1C & 1D.
In 2007 the final two days had much bigger fields and that is anticipated again this year; some early registration numbers indicate Saturday and Sunday will be much larger.
2008 Main Event Day 1B: 1158 entrants [2455]
2007 Main Event Day 1B: 1545 entrants [2832 two day total]
2008 Main Event Day 1A: 1297 entrants
2007 Main Event Day 1A: 1287 entrants
2008 Day 1C: Saturday?
2007 Day 1C: 1743 entrants
2008 Day 1D: Sunday?
2007 Day 1D: 1783 entrants
The field for Day 1B is clearly smaller than for Day 1A, there are sixteen empty tables in the main tournament area. Cash games continue in that section of the room. Final number for today will not be avaiable until at least the end of round three (the dinner break).
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All five of the multi-table satellites yesterday had over 225 players. The largest was the $330 with 390 starters. Numbers were a bit off today with the July 4th holiday. A full slate of satellites are running tomorrow and a final 8 AM Mega on Sunday.
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Two of my favorite players were in the field today. Bill Edler and Kristy Gazes. Two very good players and just plain great people. Kristy has three cashes so far this Series; Bill has been blanked this year but we all remember his bracelet last summer and his great run in the Main Event (23rd). I like to point out players like these two, if only to balance the other side of poker offered by the Doctor of Darkness Pauly.
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The online qualifiers were even more prominent today with the new t-shirts, hats and stick-on logos seemingly at every other seat.
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I took in the Life Style Expo during the first level, I was hoping for one real hi-lite. Just when it looked like I was going to have to settle for a Doyle book signing; I discovered the Cyndy Violette clothing emporium with Cyndy herself there to smile happiness into anyone's day.
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I also stopped by the Cardoza Publishing booth. I predict the Cardoza display will be one of the hottest attractions at next year's Life Style Expo.
A lot of people seemed surprised that today (Day 1A) "only" had as many entrants as last year. Seems like a pretty good number for a Thursday and one full table ahead of last year.
2008 Main Event Day 1A: 1297 entrants
2007 Main Event Day 1A: 1287 entrants
A tantalizing comparative field (1297) turned out for the first of four Day One flights. Speculation on just what that means for the total 2008 Main Event can wait a couple of days; I would point out this is Thursday with a big weekend in front of us and tomorrow is the Fourth of July here in the States. But just a couple of days will tell all we need to know.
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There is a 25 table Mega Satellite ($1060) going on across the hall which will produce another two dozen players for the Main Event. I spotted Kenna James and Steve Dannenmann playing for a cheap seat. Another five Megas go off each of the next three days.
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Michael Craig and Dave "Devilfish" Ulliott were involved in four hands heads up in just the first hour of play. Michael dragged all four of those pots. Methinks the Devilfish will be after Michael the rest of the day. Maureen Feduniak is also at this table and I expect her to stay away from the boyz squabble, unless she can stack one of them. [Update: Suhail Falchouri ended the Devilfish vs. Craig confrontations by taking QQ against Ulliott's 99 and he Devilfish is gone]
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I spotted one of my personal favorite players today, Dale Pinchot, he has been active though, we just have missed each other. Dale has two cashes in the Series this summer to go along with his two from last year.
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I have been catching up with many of the dealers I know from past WSOP summers and have heard some interesting stories about this WSOP and the overall dealer climate in Las Vegas. I will save those for a "dealers only" article later on in the Main Event.
 The beginning of the beginning of the end....
Fifty-One bracelets have been handed out; two more are ready to be presented today; the Player of the Year has been determined, congratulations to Erick Lindgren; the Ante Up for Africa event goes off today. Then, finally, we get to the Main Event and we answer most of the questions everyone has waited for.
Will we have more entries than last year?
Will the professionals somehow continue their dominance they have shown thru 53 preliminary events?
Will it all run as smooth as the tournaments have run so far? By the way, nice job to the WSOP staff this was truly a nicely run Series so far. Minor mistakes, quick fixes and overall solid and uniform floor decisions. Kudos to Tournament Director Jack Effel and his WSOP floor staff.
Another great move comes later this week, when the WSOP Media event is brought back with substantial prizes given to the favorite charities of the final table participants. A great solution to that on again off again event.
Then tomorrow we reach the 2008 World Series of Poker $10,000 No Limit Hold'em Main Event. Four Day One flights, two Day Two flights and five more days to play down to the "November Nine" or the "Fall Final". Then all the WSOP eggs go into that ESPN/November basket and we all wait, watch, hope and pray. No matter who you favor in that mass of poker humanity, say a little prayer that at least one or two "names" make it to the final nine. Nothing could be better for poker than to see Scotty, Mike, Phil, Phil, Erick, Jennifer, Antonio, Gus, Daniel, Joe, Johnny** or heaven help us Doyle! make the final table.
It all starts tomorrow.
**Dewey, Cyndy, Bill, Gavin, Carlos, Chris, Doug, Liz, David, Tony, Lyle, Barry, Berry, Huck, Patrik, David, the other Phil and the other Phil, Greg, Layne, Chad, Isabelle, Todd, Freddy, T.J., Michael, Mike again, Ted, Gabe, Andy, Howard, John, John, John or John, Lee, Annie, Eli, Hoyt, Andy or even Jerry.
 First and foremost, congratulations to Scotty Nguyen for taking down the $50,000 H.O.R.S.E. and being the first player to hold the Chip Reese trophy. Scotty has an amazing track record over nearly 20 years of playing poker. His record, of course, includes the 1998 World Series of Poker main event championship and tournament earnings approaching Ten Million Dollars. Now Scotty adds to his legend, taking down the most prestigious tournament in professional poker.
But like so many great careers there is a dark side to Scotty's, one episode of which took place last summer at the 2007 WSOP main event. With twelve players remaining in the hunt for the final table nine, Scotty Nguyen was the chipleader and, as we all know, he did not make the final table. That crash and burn troubled Scotty for many months and will probably never be forgotten in poker lore.
Fast forward to this summer, the very next World Series of Poker main event and add to the mixture: the delayed final table. Combine these two events and I offered to you the "Scotty Nguyen Syndrome".
Syndrome: a predictable, characteristic pattern of behavior, action, etc., that tends to occur under certain circumstances
I don't know when it will hit and it will not affect all players at the same moment but somewhere around 18 players or 27 players; maybe even as high as 36 or even 45 players for some, it will appear. This is not just the World Series of Poker Final Table, no this is the "November Nine", the "Fall Final".
And as sure as it will be 108 degrees in Las Vegas, each an every player who survives to Day Six on July 13th and certainly to Day Seven on July 14th, each of those players will experience the "Scotty Nguyen Syndrome".
To get that close to four months of publicity and interviews and endorsements and fame and potential fortune and who knows what else... The "SNS" is going to massively effect play whenever it sets in. Players will get tight, really tight; decisions will take longer, a lot longer; tempers will shorten, in some cases really, really shorten; table talk, hand winning celebrations and anything resembling angle shooting will be scrutinized, analyzed and penalized? Floor decisions will be magnified out of all proportion, imagine giving a player a two round penalty on the bubble!
The final table bubble itself will be much bigger, extending out to at least 27 players. The media coverage will be more intense and more critical than ever before. And the players...? Well the players will not be themselves because they will be playing under the influence of the "Scotty Nguyen Syndrome".
Rumor has it that Corona will lessen but not alleviate the symptoms of the syndrome but there is a rebound effect if you excede a twelve pak in less than two full tournament levels. Perhaps Harrah's should supply extra massage staff for the final four tables or just rig cold showers above the tables like they do in hazardous material labs. And people say poker is not a sport.....
 No, I am not rethinking my position on moving the WSOP main event final table to November. I am for it, I have been for it since the first rumors last fall, I remain steadfast in the belief that this is a well thought out move to attract more fans to the Series and to insure continuing television coverage.
What I am hearing from players, both professional and otherwise, is that they are coming around to favor the "November Nine" idea. I certainly understand the initial reaction to such a big change. Lots of folks truly love this game and do not like it changing. I, myself, am not a traditionalist but for a truly moving statement about that aspect of the game, might I recommend an article by Amy Calistri.
As weeks have past and the whole idea has had time to be pondered and debated, more and more players are seeing the rationale for the move. Poker needs a boost and this just might do it. At nearly every table, this move comes up, more and more we hear positive remarks and a good deal of a 'wait and see' attitude. If it doesn't work then they just change it back next year. But it is worth the attempt and I applaud the WSOP staff for moving forward with this; just as I like to acknowledge them for making the summer of 2008 the year of "no tents at the Series". After all, not every experiment works.
I am not so fond of the label: "November Nine". It's just flat and doesn't evoke much. Now if they had asked me for a suggestion, need I point out who came up with Sequestrium last summer? I would have gone for: "The Fall Final". Emphasizes the event not the players and sounds just a bit like The Fall Classic.
 My WSOP adventure starts today with our first pre-Series meeting. Hmmm, now that I think about it, well nevermind who wants to hear about meetings. Here are some relevant and hopefully interesting numbers on the 2007 WSOP.
-55 events a record for any poker tournament anywhere;
-the best (most informed) over/under for the Main Event is 4800; how anyone can actually make a reasonable estimate is beyond me. The key factor is just how many of the online qualifiers will spend their cash and how many will actually book the flight and the hotel room and bring the $10,000 to the Rio.
-wild guesses set the online qualifiers who actually come to the Series at 35%; again wild speculation, so let me add in another twist. If you did win a package and you did actually come to Las Vegas for the Series--would you use your $10,000 for a seat in what will be the biggest field in the WSOP or might you decide to play six $1500 events instead?
-Last year's Main Event had 8,773 entrants; if the odds on Pocket Aces is 220 to 1; then last year 42 players got Pocket Aces on their first hand of the Main Event. Actually 61 players got them, so clearly live poker is rigged.
-The best over/under bet is not how many entrants in the Main Event but will more or less players enter the $50,000 HORSE event. Last year 143 players put up the big bucks to play in what is becoming "the" event for the poker professionals. With the event extended to five days this year, I would say the easy money is the "over 143" bet.
 The hottest prop bet since last October has been:
"How many entrants will there be in the 2007 WSOP Main Event?"
The high or low answer is based on how online sites are handling their internet qualifiers. We all know that well over half of the field in the last two years of the WSOP $10K Main Event were online qualifers. We also know that Harrah's has had an evolving policy on how to enforce their ban on the online poker sites actually paying for those qualifiers.
While Harrah's will officially say that they have not taken "third party" payments for the last two year, the reality on the ground at the Rio tournament cash cage was very different. When one nice lady comes to the sign-up window over a hundred times with a different player each time and $10,000 in cash; I think her job is clear. Or when a third party corporation "not affliated with any online site" deposits hundreds of thousands of dollars for individual buy-ins... well, same conclusion.
But this year is indeed different. Because of the UIGEA legislation, Harrah's is not accepting third party registrations, or at least they are attempting not to. We will see how this plays out on the ground at the registration windows this summer. But some online sites have thrown up their hands at the continuing hassle of getting players into the Big Show. Some are going to send a representative with cash to Las Vegas, many others have cut back on their qualiying tournaments and some have finally decided just to give the players $10,000 and let them decided whether or not to actually go to the Series at all.
PokerStars has taken this last option after
"Working tirelessly for several months in an attempt to directly buy-in PokerStars' World Series qualifiers to the Main Event."
This, of course, leads to the question: "How many of these players with $10,000 in their hands are actually going to the World Series?"
The Duh! answer is--"not many!"
Full text of the PokerStars 'cash' letter to WSOP qualifers after the break.
PaddyPower has released their betting odds on how many players will participate in the 2007 World Series of Poker. Of course, the odds vary widely because of the effects of the Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act. But as of today, here are the posted odds.
Under 2000 20 - 1
2000-2499 25 - 1
2500-2999 18 - 1
3000-3499 10 - 1
3500-3999 11 - 2
4000-4499 9 - 2
4500-4999 9 - 2
5000-5499 6 - 1
5500-5999 8 - 1
6000-6499 14 - 1
6500-6999 18 - 1
7000-7499 22 - 1
7500-7999 25 - 1
8000-8499 28 - 1
8500-8999 33 - 1
9000+ 11 - 1
Jamie Gold is 66-1 to make the Final Table in 2007
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