Nlhe

The first No Limit Hold'em event of the 2008 World Series has just set a new record for entries. Last year one of the later $1,500 NLHE events had 3,151 players, which set the then record for most entries in a non-main event WSOP tournament. Just moments ago player #3152 entered today's Event #2: $1,500 No Limit Hold'em and we have a new record.

The total for Event #2 will not be known until tomorrow because there are two Day Ones for this event, which is another first: an event other than the $10,000 main event with multiple Day Ones. Clearly the WSOP staff anticipated this record when they added the second Day One and opened registration two days before the Series actually began. The plan seems to have worked with over 2,900 players registered by midnight last night and the record broken nearly an hour before cards are in the air.

The "no alternates" announcement several weeks ago has also gotten the players attention; more than one player in line last night cited that new rule as the reason for their early registration. Several players also were veterans of last year's enormous registration lines and they too seem to have learned a lesson.

With the record now broken, the prop bets seem to be hovering at around 2400 for the new record. Looking at the registration windows, I would take the over.

[UPDATE: The final total for Event #2 was 3,929.]
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2008 Event #2
$1,500 No Limit Hold'em
Number of Entrants: 3,929

2007 Reigning Champion: CIARAN O’LEARY $727,012
2007 Entries 2,998
(the record 3,151 was set in Event #49 last year)

Yes that actually is a formula for when to bluff. Specifically for when to bluff post-flop in No Limit Texas Hold'em. It comes from a very interesting website and it even has an attached Excel spreadsheet calculator in case your math skills have slipped since algebra. Notice what the skilled mathematician has considered in his equation.

O= The skill level of your opponents (1-10 with 1 being "your neighbor's kids"). Because you can't bluff bad opponents—they'll call even when they shouldn't.

C= How conservative are the opponents who are still in? Again, you can't bluff against loose cannons—they'll call even when they shouldn't.

I= Your table image (1-10 with 10 being "have consistently thrown away everything except for pocket rockets"). If people think you're a loose cannon, they're more likely to call you.

F= The Flop. An ideal bluffing flop is one in which either all three cards are junk, or in which two are junk and one is a high card you can represent.

N= The number of people still in after the flop. No bluffing into a family pot.

P= Your position. You want to act last, ideally after watching everyone check their junk to you.

S= The Strength of other players' hands. This assumes you have some reading skills; don't all the good scientific equations always seem to relie on at least one fundamental assumption? You know like gravity or warp drive.

There's a catch, this equation defines the perfect situation in which to bluff. However, if you're always bluffing in the mathematically perfect situation, your opponents will know you're bluffing! You know it's the old: If he knows I am bluffing then will he think I know he knows or will he know I know he knows I know and therefore.....

Warning: the equation was created as a sample video for a proposed TV show on the SciFi channel (they wanted to see massive geekiness in action). But it comes with a video explanation.