Odds

As we getting closer and closer to the World Series of Poker main event final table. There are more and more betting odds being put out. Here are some of the more interesting from several different online gaming sites:

Here is the final table line-up with chip stacks and seating:

Seat 1: Dennis Phillips - 26,295,000
Seat 2: Craig Marquis - 10,210,000
Seat 3: Ylon Schwartz - 12,525,000
Seat 4: Scott Montgomery - 19,690,000
Seat 5: Darus Suharto - 12,520,000
Seat 6: David 'Chino' Rheem - 10,230,000
Seat 7: Ivan Demidov - 24,400,000
Seat 8: Kelly Kim - 2,620,000
Seat 9: Peter Eastgate - 18,375,000

Odds To Win:

Dennis Phillips - 3/1 (4.5/1 secondary site)
Scott Montgomery - 4/1 (5/1)
Ivan Demidov - 4.5/1 (4.9/1)
Peter Eastgate 5.5/1 (5.6/1)
David 'Chino' Rheem - 7.5/1 (10.5/1)
Ylon Schwartz - 8/1 (9.5/1)
Darus Suharto - 8.5/1 (11.5/1)
Craig Marquis - 10/1 (12/1)
Kelly Kim - 25/1 (40/1)
-not exactly chip for chip.

Odds on First Bustout

Dennis Phillips - 13/1
Ivan Demidov - 10/1
Peter Eastgate 6.5/1
Scott Montgomery - 6.5/1
Ylon Schwartz - 5/1
Darus Suharto - 5/1
Craig Marquis - 4/1
David 'Chino' Rheem - 3.5/1
Kelly Kim - 1.3/1
-after considering the short stack, someone really analyzed the playing styles; fast and aggressive can also mean crash and burn.

What will be the winning hand?
One Pair 2/3
High Card 9/4
Two Pair 3/2
-this is easy with just a bit of poker knowledge and a look at past final tables.

OK, I admit it, I like to gamble, to bet, to wager. My sports betting habits are however a bit strange. I am bored by whether the Tigers will defeat the Falcons or if the Bruins can beat the spread against United.

I like prop bets! And when those aren't available I really like nonsense bets against the odds, like the lines on various aspects of the World Series of Poker that came out today. Here are a few of my favorites:

Number of Entrants in the Main Event:

Under 2000 33 - 1
2000-2499 250 - 1
2500-2999 200 - 1
3000-3499 125 - 1
3500-3999 80 - 1
4000-4499 40 - 1
4500-4999 25 - 1
5000-5499 11 - 1
5500-5999 6 - 1
6000-6499 5 - 1
6500-6999 7 - 2
7000-7499 4 - 1
7500-7999 5 - 1
8000-8499 13 - 2
8500-8999 9 - 1
9000+ 7 - 2

I gotta go with the favorite here, right around 6700.
The under 2,000 number must be in case of terrorist attack.
The over 9,000 folks have been drinking heavily.

To Make the Final Table of the Main Event:

Just my personal favorites here and a few "Necessary Notables".

Carlos Mortensen 100 - 1
Daniel Negreanu 100 - 1
Gus Hansen 100 - 1
Phil Hellmuth 100 - 1
Phil Ivey 100 - 1

The most comprehensive betting line on the WSOP is available at Blue Square Bet. The odds are not for winning the WSOP Main Event but rather for making the final table.

Mind you, if you just picked a random player last year to make the final table of 9; then the exact odds would have been 8773/9=975/1. With perhaps a shorter field this year the random odds would be perhaps 500/1 (4500/9=500). So the question arises: Is Phil Ivey 25 times better than a random player in the field?

Odds to make the Final Table of 9 in the WSOP Main Event.

Phil Ivey 20/1

Daniel Negreanu 33/1
Carlos Mortensen 2001 WSOP Champion
Allen Cunningham 2006 WSOP Final Table (4th)

Howard Lederer 40/1
Antonio Esfandiari
Michael Mizrachi
Phil Hellmuth 1989 WSOP Champion
JC Tran
Erik Seidel
Johnny Chan 1987-1988 WSOP Champion

Barry Greenstein 50/1
Gus Hansen
Doyle Brunson 1976-1977 WSOP Champion
Ted Forrest
John Juanda
Chris Ferguson 2000 WSOP Champion
Scott Fischman
Scotty Nguyen 1998 WSOP Champion
Erick Lindgren
Joe Hachem 2005 WSOP Champion
John 'World' Hennigan

Higher Odds after the break......