Poker Shrink

The third edition of the PartyPoker.com Premier League will begin early round play today in London. This year's line-up of competitors will feature a bit of the old and a brand new bit of the new. The just announced final player is 11 time WSOP bracelet winner: Phil Hellmuth. The most interesting new face to the Premier League is brand new WSOP Champion: Peter Eastgate. The former "youngest ever" World Series of Poker Champ will face off against the new youthful titleholder and an impressive array of other runners, including:

Tom ‘Durrrr’ Dwan
JC Tran
Nenad Medic
David 'Devilfish' Ulliott
Tony G
Vicky Coren
Annette Obrestad
Roland de Wolfe
Andy Black
Juha Helppi

Early action at Party Bets has the newly crowned WSOP winner at the favorite to take down the event.

Action begins with a live draw for seats and flights at 10 AM local time, followed by seven days of exciting play. The format remains as in previous two league mathces: All 12 players will play six times in the preliminary stages. The leading four players will then progress to the final table with the next four battling it out in heads-up matches for the final two seats.

If you are either a U.S. poker player or a non-U.S. poker player who would like to play against the rich and fishy U.S. players again, then you need to take a minute to read this blog. I will keep it short and precise because there is something you need to do.

There is a lot of angry noise about the outgoing Bush administration passing a lot of regulations in their final days in office, including finally coming out with the rules for the 2006 Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act.

Well, first the facts, this happens every time a U.S. President leaves office. This is not unusual and there will literally be hundreds of new regulations put in place in the next two months. Just another dirty side of American politics.

However, the UIGEA is already law, what has been offered up, as of yesterday, are the first "proposed" implementation guidelines. But here is the important thing to know: These are proposed rules and are now open to public comment by anyone. All you have to do is take a minute or five and write that you are opposed.

To be sure the American financial industry is opposed and they will say so loudly and publicly. But you are against these rules too and you have the right to be heard and you don't need to be a U.S. citizen. Below are the means to forward your comments and an additional link to the Obama Transition Team to let them know of your concern.

Probably the easiest way to communicate your thoughts is via email to regs.comments@federalreserve.gov, be sure to include the docket number in the subject of your email, it is R-1298.

There are also two websites for offering your comments either the Federal Reserve or the Federal RuleMaking Portal. Just follow the instructions to "comment".

To copy the Obama people, use this link.

And finally, if you would actually like to read the proposed rules, here is the site.

Yes, it is finally here!

Just a few quick notes from inside and outside the Penn & Teller theatre at the Rio Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas.

-the place is packed! there are literally hundreds of fans in line for the seats still available;
-final table players have brought large contingents of family and friends;
-the most impressive group has to be the white shirted St. Louis Cardinal red hat wearing Dennis Phillips gang, which easily numbers over 300;
-the press box at the top of the theatre is really a good place to watch the whole scene, but there are really no good media seats in the house, because the main stage is set up for ESPN and the limited audience allowed in the three bleacher sections set up beside it;
-early professional sightings: Phil Gordon, Evelyn Ng, Barry Greenstien, Jerry Yang, Hevad Khan (all the final table players from 2008 were invited to attend);
-the crowd is very noisy, they have even given out those annoying bang sticks, not to mention cow bells and fog horns; this will not be your usual final table.

Cards are in the air at 11:10 AM local time (PST). Read no more today, if you want Tuesday's telecast to be a surprise.

Now that the dust has cleared on the federal elections in the United States, what does the new political line-up in Washington D.C. mean for online poker?

First, the news is mostly good. The democrats will have increased majority is both houses of congress as well as President Obama in the white house. Democrats are generally more favorable to a regulation of online gaming as opposed to a prohibition. Additionally, almost no one wants to put excess regulatory burden on the financial system during the present economic crisis, which is exactly what the draconian provisions of the Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act attempted to do.

Second, the various congressional committees that dealt with the various potential regulations of the internet and commerce are all in the hands of committee chairmen, who favor online gaming. Also several of those committee will be gaining new members, who politically will be expected to follow the party line on more liberal and open internet gaming politics.

So, what to expect:

-unless the old administration acts before January 20th to get out policies and guidelines based on the two year old UIGEA; expect such rules to never see the light of day under the new administration.
-expect several bills to hit the new congress early in 2009 with slow but steady progress through the cumbersome approval process.
-breakthroughs in trade policy negotiation on online poker with both the European Union and other jurisdictions, like Antigua.

Will it happen soon? No.

Will it happen? Yes, definitely yes.

When the new more open U.S. government takes over next year, there is every belief that their national prohibitionist position on online gaming will at some point be reversed. Eventually the U.S. will regulate the online poker industry for U.S. players.

Let me suggest that this will make similar decisions in all parts of the world much more difficult. Let's take Sweden's Svenska Spel gaming monopoly for example. Despite EU pressure Svenska Spel and other national owned and operated gaming monopolies continue to both operate and exclude other online sites from operating within certain geographic boundaries.

There are advantages to government run sites. A uniform, non-English language is often used. Social and moral concerns are addressed within the strictures of a unique cultural set. And the government makes a lot of money on the rake.

But here comes the not too distant crisis of conscience and of pocket book. As far as online poker, the U.S. constitutes the largest revenue stream and dollar for dollar, euro for euro, lira for lira, peso for peso; the Americans gamble for more cash then any other nation on the net. This, of course, has to do with multiple factors of disposable income, as well as high speed internet penetration.

The problem? Do you want to keep these American gamblers out of your market, when they could substantially increase your revenue by inviting them in?

Well no, you say, bring them in to our website.

Here is the problem that all nations will face in the new unfolding open online marketplace. Countries, like the US, will ban your site, if you ban their sites. So Svenska Spel will have to let their citizens out, if they let others in. This will be a hard decision for some national gaming monopolies but the change in the U.S. law will also make the overall EU decision easier. The monster revenue potential of opening to the United States market will be just too much to ignore. What will break down trade barriers is not thoughtful regulation but the specter of lost profits.

The European Parliament's Internal Market and Consumer Protection Committee will meet next week in Brussels to consider a draft report which seeks a European Parliament Resolution on 'the integrity of online gambling'. The report is clearly not favorable to online gaming and online poker. And although the report is not binding on future Commission action, the report reasserts all of the negatives used by opponents of online gaming and freedom of the internet. Once again we are to be protected from ourselves.

There is a separate political issue involved here that does not get much press and that is the EU Commission and the European Court of Justice are overwhelmed with gaming cases. Every country wants to assert it sovereign rights over gambling issues and every other country wants everyone else to honor those local and jingoistic regulations. Unfortunately, the EU was established, at least in part, to lower such lower tariffs and trade laws but with gambling there is the miasma of the moral and social order to be considered.

Rather than seek to revolve issues of regulation and fair business practices, the Internal Market and Consumer Protection Committee has chosen to go with the reactionary position of prohibition.

"Member States have a legitimate interest in monitoring and regulating their gambling markets in order to protect consumers against addiction, fraud, money-laundering and fixed games as well as to protect the culturally-built funding structures which finance sports activities and other social causes," and "underlines that online gambling operators should comply with the legislation of the Member State in which they provide their services."

The report goes on site the nebulous fears of all prohibitionists:

"Online gambling is likely to give rise to risks to consumers and that Member States may therefore legitimately restrict the freedom to provide online gambling services in order to protect consumers."

Fortunately, the EU Parliament tends to act in the best interest of the whole of the EU populations, whereas the Internal Market and Consumer Protection Committee tends to put forward the interests of individual member states, many of which seek to retain their own national gaming monopolies.

Online gaming continues to be the single largest unresolved issue before the EU Commission with no real signs of any movement towards an open market solution at this time.

Reacting to a court ruling in the State of Kentucky, Microgaming has announced it will restrict (ban) access to all of its poker platforms from thirteen states in the U.S. Citing "laws already on the books but not being enforced" the blocks will go into effect "within the time period for the Kentucky ruling", which is now less than 30 days.

The states to be blocked are: Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Utah.

The gaming websites that run on the Microgaming platform are most notably: Doyles's Room, Gnuf and all Eurolinx affiliates.

Once again the various political entities in the U.S. are legislating at cross purposes much like the confederacy of the European Union. While the U.S. Federal government is moving to regulation, tax and control online poker; individual states are seeking to restrict internet access and control the hearts, minds and wallets of their citizens.

I have been spending some time at Bellagio this week during the Festa al Lago Classic poker tournament. Here are some observations and some signs of the poker times.

-while I was dropping my car off at the Bellagio Valet, Phil Ivey and David Benyamine were leaving in Phil's big, shiny, black Cadillac or Mercedes; well it wasn't a Hummer. I guess the big game in Bobby's Room didn't have enough warm bodies to get going at noon-thirty on a Wednesday.

-the big plasma screens that show the tournament clock and ESPN, now also have CNBC with a stock ticker; by player request I am told. And here you thought they gambled all those winnings on craps.

-I arrived in the poker room just in time to see Erik Seidel standing up to leave and Mike Matusow raking in a nice stack of Erik's chips, but this is a big ($15K buy-in; 45K starting chips) Bellagio tournament and walking around the tournament area, I recognized on average 7 players at every table.

-Politics was a big topic of discussion among the players. It seems that long time democrats and ever longer time republicans were voting "For Poker" this time around and not for a political party.

-Some of the prop bets being offered on the U.S. election were just about as strange any I have heard before. One key discussion was on what constitutes a "Swing State" versus a "Battleground State" and, of course, how to handicap them for a prop bet.

-Oh, and there is a poker tournament going on, $1.4 million for first place.

October 15th, 2008, Today marks the tenth anniversary of the opening of Bellagio in Las Vegas. With the current economic hard times in the whole wide world and Las Vegas too; one wonders if the most recent "Golden Age" of Las Vegas is over.

Well, here is an article from the Las Vegas Sun from exactly ten years ago today. It's a bit long, if you get the 'picture' before the end, might I suggest you skip down to the last line of the article. Is there a word "anti-prophetic"?

Las Vegas Sun
Gary Thompson
October 15, 1998

In addition to Bellagio, the new projects include Circus Circus Enterprises Inc.'s Mandalay Bay, Hilton Hotels Corp.'s Paris, Sheldon Adelson's The Venetian, Jack Sommer's Aladdin, the Resort at Summerlin and expansions at the MGM Grand and Rio.

Day Four of the 2008 World Series of Poker main event runs on ESPN and other international channels for the first time tonight. The massive field is now under 500 players, all in one room and all in one section of the main room at the World Series. "Celebrity Coverage" is over and hopefully we will be seeing more poker and less fluff for the next four weeks.

One thing to look for now is how quickly ESPN is able to pick up coverage of the eventual "November Nine", thus far only David "Chino" Rheem has made an appearance and that was because he was moved to the ESPN feature table on Day One.

Here is the remaining "first run" schedule for the telecast:

October 7th: Day Four (474 players)
October 14th: Day Five (189 players)
October 21st: Day Six (79 players)
October 28th: Day Seven (27 players)
November 4th: ESPN Final Table preview show
November 11th: Nearly Live Final Table (9 players)

They are down to the final nine in London at the World Series of Poker Europe. Daniel Negreanu is there as is John Juanda. The most interesting player to notice is Ivan Demidov. Why? Because Ivan has another final table to play next month in Las Vegas. Ivan Demidov is one of the November Nine, still in the running for the 2008 WSOP main event bracelet. Now wouldn't this be a double win that would be talked about for a long, long time.

Seat 1: Robin Keston 849,000
Seat 2: Daniel Negreanu 1,002,000
Seat 3: Chris Elliott 281,000
Seat 4: Bengt Sonnert 385,000
Seat 5: John Juanda 1,349,000
Seat 6: Ivan Demidov 1,006,000
Seat 7: Toni Hiltunen 386,000
Seat 8: Scott Fischman 732,000
Seat 9: Stanislav Alekhin 1,278,000

There has been some interesting and sometimes strange news around the poker world this week. Here is a glimpse and a glance at some of the more or less interesting tidbits.

The World Series of Poker Europe has been running this week with three preliminary events and today's first of two Day Ones in the main event. The Events are being "double numbered", they are WSOPE 2008 Events 1-4, as well as 2008 WSOP 56-59. We have heard only minor grumbling about "diluting" the value of the WSOP bracelet; I mean they give out 55 bracelets in Las Vegas every summer, so what are four more. The question may be raised in 2009 when rumor has it, there may be a WSOPE group of tournaments in both London and Barcelona. Then again, it is supposed to be the World Series of Poker.

Next item, the State of Kentucky in the United States is attempting to seize control of 141 poker websites because.... well you can read the legal background but it comes down to yet another moralistic fundamentalist who believes that politicians have the right to restrict the freedoms of citizens based on their own irrational fears and beliefs. Wars have been fought over such morality or immorality based legislation.

A new study was found that interest in poker, at least among youth, has fallen. Indeed, according to this study: "interest in poker peaked in 2005" and has been falling dramatically since then. The reason? Poker was trendy and like all trends the novelty wears off. So poker will go the way of backgammon and the macarena?

One final report, gaming revenues for July in the State of Nevada were off again. The total "take" or "win" for the casinos was down 14% year over year and this includes the Las Vegas Strip casinos, which account for 50% of the total gaming revenues in Nevada. Poker revenues were down just slightly more than were the overall gaming totals. There is some doubt about whether all of the revenue from the World Series of Poker was included in these numbers, since the WSOP does not technically end until November 11th.

I remember over five years ago having the "online cheating" argument with my poker buddies. They would argue that the online sites would not cheat for "a couple of extra bucks" when they were already making millions on the rake. I would argue that money is money and since cheating was so easy from inside the server firewall that it just had to be happening. We had this same argument every time we got together on one of our poker road trip. Guess what! They don't argue with me any more. Not after both Ultimate Bet and Absolute were caught cheating.

Now to be fair, some of the details of both of these scandals are still unclear but the bottom line is not. Cut away all the accusations and finger pointing and you have the unrefuted fact that insiders with "super user" accounts were able to see the hole cards of other players and they cheated them out of millions of dollars. No one, any longer, denies this happened.

Did either site try to cover up the facts? Was it the 'previous owners' committing these crimes? Is there any jurisdictional basis for anyone to go to jail? Was any of the cheating erased from the databases? Who ultimately is responsible?

If you would like to know just how convoluted this mess really is... I want to point you to the MSNBC article from last week: Poker site cheating plot a high-stakes whodunit. For the first time in the "non-poker media" there is an honest treatment of just what may have happened in this case. The article ought to convince you not only of what did happen but of how legally difficult it might be to hold anyone accountable for the fraud and theft.

In a bureaucratic ruling worthy of only the paranoid dreams of Big Brother, the government paid for and appointed "save-us-from-ourselves" UK Advertising Standards Authority has banned a television advertisement by PKR which "glamorised the risks involved in gambling and implied it was possible to win against the odds".

The ad showed a computer-generated image of a poker room with a number of players seated around a poker table. The main "too glamorous" character makes a huge all in bet while the ad's voice-over states:

"I've come in over the top of pot-sized raises with middle pair. Bluffed under the gun with four runners behind me. Folded pocket kings on a hunch. I've survived bad beats, sick draws and cold decks. And I've played through fields of thousands to make the final table. Here I come."

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To justify its censorship, the ASA said that the ad gave the impression that it was acceptable to take risks 'on a hunch' and implied that poker could be played in a reckless way. The ASA also specifically noted that the main character at the virtual table is shown laughing as he made his all in bet, and therefore the ASA concluded that the ad could be seen to glamorise the risks involved with gambling.

PKR has been told not to broadcast the ad again in its current form and in the future all representations of real or virtual individuals engaged in gambling activities should depict sad and angry demeanors.

"People playing poker should not be seen to be enjoying themselves."

There is a battle coming over player conduct at the poker table. This all started before Scotty Nguyen's drunken performance during the WSOP H.O.R.S.E. event. But I want to go on record right now and say: "Enough is Enough!"

Now you might be thinking, well the Poker Shrink is going to wail on Scotty and Phil and Mike and Sheiky and Hevad for their behavior at the tables. Wrong! I am completely opposed to the politically correct lynch mob that wants to turn poker into a tea party. Don't kid yourself for a moment that is precisely what some moralistic busybodies are trying to do.

Now should Scotty have been reined in by the WSOP staff during the $50K H.O.R.S.E. event; well, of course. But they did nothing and as I have said before that is not the fault of the Assistant Tournament Director running that final table. All evidence in the past at WSOP events is that "some players" get a pass on the rules because quite frankly, it makes for good TV. Right now the WSOP is writing new rules for player conduct. I hope they don't go too far. I have written to Jeffery Pollack, Jack Effel and Ty Stewart with my opinion on this matter but I am sure they are hearing from many sources.

If you want to see what I mean by "going too far" take a few minutes to read the World Poker Association Code of Ethics. Tell me after reading those rules that you don't feel like some romantic poetry or perhaps a long walk on the beach at sunset.

The problem with giving any group of individuals the power to make laws is that they will invariably make laws, whether they are needed or not. Do you want the goody two-shoes of the world running poker? I don't.

Should there be rules for player conduct? Well, of course there should. But the key in my opinion is the enforcement at the tables and that must include a clear, unmistakable warning system. I have suggested that something like the "yellow card" in soccer. You see when the yellow card is shown, the referee requires that the player acknowledge the warning. They know they have been warned. Let my give you a recent example of the current fuzzy rules.

Phil Hellmuth was given a one round penalty at the end of play on Day Five in this year's WSOP main event. As you know that penalty was rescinded before Day Six began. Now, I was there for that incident and I can tell you that no penalty should have been given. Why? Was Phil not out of line? No, he definitely was. However, Phil has been warned many times in the past and never, repeat never given a penalty. Why would he think the warning meant anything different this time. Secondly, when he finally given the penalty, Phil looked at the Tournament Director and said: "You think they put my on the television table to be quiet?" Of all the lines I have ever heard Phil deliver that was the most telling. Phil is a draw, they want him to be Phil and yet at some point they decided it was what? Too much Phil? How is he supposed to know where that line is? So in this case, based on the rules as they now stand, I completely agree with the penalty being rescinded.

You want rules, fine; how about we let poker players decide on what is and is not a good rule. The F-Bomb has been modified and now, in theory, is only, enforced if you direct the expletive at a player or staff person. The old 100% ban was just not well thought out and fortunately has been changed. However, a floor may, at any time, warn a player that their language is out of line and must stop or they will receive a penalty. Either of those clauses could have and should have been invoked in the case of Scotty Nguyen; they were not. So why should Scotty change his behavior, it made for great TV and no one told him to stop.

Now, wait you say, why shouldn't we have stricter rules to keep the poker table civil and friendly. The simple reason is that people making rules just don't know when to stop. Don't believe me. Here is another "rule" from the World Poker Association. WPA Rule #13. TV Final Table Clothing: Collared shirts and/or sports jackets are required for men; smart casual clothing for women. And let's make sure everyone has a manicure, you know all those close up shots of a player's hands; heaven forbid someone has excess cuticle.

Macau – China – 28th August 2008 – The cards are in the air at the Galaxy StarWorld Hotel and Casino in Macau as Day 1A of the eagerly awaited APT Macau finally got underway! ‘Godfather of Poker’ Doyle Brunson and the legendary host of the 1970 World Series of Poker Jack Binion joined Asian Poker Tour Tournament Director Matt Savage to ‘Shuffle Up and Deal’ as a world class field took their seats. Jack Binion, standing alongside Doyle Brunson, addressed the players as they took their seats. “This is the future of poker,” said Binion. “This is so exciting and significant - you can see the potential and feel the energy.”

A formidable line-up of players are at the StarWorld for the landmark USD $5300 event. Amongst those spotted include Johnny Chan, Todd Brunson, Liz Lieu, J.C Tran, Kenny Tran, John Juanda, Nam Le, Quinn Do, Steve Sung, Huck Seed, Michael ‘ Chino ’ Rheem, Mel Judah, Mansour Matloubi, Harry Demetriou, Carter Gill, Richard En and APT Philippines champion David Saab.

Amongst those choosing Day 1A include Doyle and Todd Brunson but there was considerable interest on the rail as Saab and JC Tran got drawn on the same table and locked horns. The APT Macau is making history by offering US$1,500,000, the largest guaranteed prize pool ever to be offered in Asia, with the first prize also guaranteed at US$500,000.

On Friday 29th August at 7pm, the Asian Poker Tour will make history again with Asia ’s largest cash game, coverage of which will be televised and distributed worldwide at a later date. The details are simple, minimum buy-in is HK$1,000,000 (US$130,000), starting blinds are HK$3,000 - $6,000, straddling and blinds are raised at the discretion of the players. Even the most conservative estimates suggest that HK$15 million (well over US$1.5 million) will be at stake, more than the guaranteed prizepool of the APT Macau tournament! Amongst those taking part include Doyle Brunson, Todd Brunson, Johnny Chan, Nam Le, JC Tran, Kenny Tran, John Juanda, Steve Sung, Yevgeniy Timoshenko, Waki, Yamazaki, Gary Benson and Bruce Parker. Doyle Brunson has already wired in HK$2,000,000 (US$260,000) and quipped “that’s just the start.”

Chris Parker, CEO of the Asian Poker Tour, will also be taking a seat in the lions den.

“I’m so glad we have such soft tables!” joked Parker. “In all seriousness, we were astounded by the interest in the high stakes cash game – everybody wants a piece of the action. We set the mimimum buy-in at HK$1,000,000 but anybody who knows anything about Macau or the potential of poker in this area of the world knows this will be small stakes by the end of the night. It is going to be something very special – when it airs we predict you will witness record breaking pots! You think the action in Vegas is big, just wait and see what comes out of Macau !”

Let's leave the whole "End of the Poker World" debate until another day. There are electronic poker tables in some card rooms and there will be more. Play 'em, don't play 'em; your choice. But I would note that the electronic tables have something between "live" play and "online" play when it comes to tells.

Some player believe there are fewer tells online and others think online tells are merely different. Well playing on an electronic table for awhile might convince you differently whatever your opinion.

First, the facts. At an electronic table the action moves from seat to seat, you can't act out of turn because you can't act until it is your turn. Also once you make any betting action, you have to confirm it with a second screen action. Image that you bet 600 in a live action game and instead of saying "600 is the bet" the dealer says "do you wish to bet 600, sir?" You can't string bet, you can't act out of turn; you can stack your chips and then fold and you can talk while you ponder your electric action.

But players sitting at a screen get into a pattern of betting with their hands or as is the case at many electronic tables, players use their players card to touch the screen; hard plastic is recognized easier than your soft finger tip. So if you watch players they will have a pattern to their manipulation of the screen options. When they are "on a hand" or setting up a bluff that routine changes. Players often fumble with the screen action when they are new to the game but once you got it, you got it! So slowing down or resetting the betting screen is a tell. You have to be smooth with the screen, just like you have to be smooth with chips. And it is just as easy to fumble the screen as it is to spill your chips.

Also players get locked in on the screen and forget about the other players. Fewer electronic players watch for tells and therefore they are also less likely to pay attention to their own mannerisms. They play like they are at home, where mumbling "Hot Damn!" when they hit their flush is not giving away anything.

New technology, new players, new tells. All in a electronic day's play, right Hal?

Yes, Virginia there is poker beyond the World Series and there is news beyond Las Vegas.

The very successful European Poker Tour has announced a somewhat reduced schedule for the coming season. The EPT has grown each year but for 2008-09 they have dropped the Dublin Open, reduced the events in Germany from two to one and the Caribbean Adventure is also gone from last year's tour schedule. Here is the EPT schedule for the coming season:

Barcelona Open (Casino Barcelona) - Sept 10-14, 2008 - €8,000
London (Victoria Casino) - October 1-5, 2008 - £5,200
Polish Open (Hyatt Regency, Warsaw) - November 15-19, 2008 - 20,000 PLN
Prague (Hilton Hotel) - December 9-13, 2008 - €5,000
Deauville (Barrière Casino) - January 20-24, 2009 - €5,000
Scandinavian Open (Casino Copenhagen) - February 17-21, 2009 - 50,000 DKR
German Open (Casino Hohensyburg) - March 10 - 14, 2009 - €5,000
San Remo (San Remo) - April 18-23, 2009 - €5,000
Grand Final (Monte Carlo Bay Hotel & Resort) - April 28 - May 3, 2009 - €10,000

All that you give and all that you deal
and all that you buy, beg, borrow or steal.
-Pink Floyd

Anyone who tells you there isn't a dark side to poker hasn't been here. By here, I mean the World Series of Poker. Now to be clear, the World Series is actually one of the brighter and lighter stops in the dark reaches of the vast poker road. But when you put all or most of the great professional poker players in one place for six or seven weeks, well there are bound to be some examples of truly desperate behavior.

Add to the thousands of players, dealers, staff and fans a large and at times articulate poker press; well, we are bound to get some reflections on the darker sides of poker. I hope we in the media are not getting too inbred but I must direct you to some insightful and very dark observations from both Dr. Pauly and the Pack-at-Pokerati. You want the dark side of poker, they will dish it up for you with wit and a wet wipe to tidy up afterwards.

On the other hand, I (the Poker Shrink) am not going to offer up a taste of darkness because you see I don't look at poker that way. I don't believe you can look at the psychology of poker and of poker players if you assume some pathology, illness, character flaw or yes, darkness. Does it exist? Certainly. But beyond the dark or perhaps right beside it there is a unique psychology to the world of poker. Yes, some or all of the lifestyle that poker requires can and does lead a few individuals to some very dark places. The list of casualties is long and will get longer. But as a wise and eloquent sage once said: "You knew the job was dangerous when you took it."

The problem, as I see it, is that very few of the victims ever take a hard, honest look at what poker is really about. Tell me if you would take this job?

On this second Sunday of the 2008 World Series, a lot of attention will be focused on the final table of Event #12: $1,500 Limit Hold’em. Yes, Vinnie Vinh leads going into day three of this tournament but a lot more interest will be paid to the number two man on the leader board, Erick Lindgren. The speculation, of course, is whether Erick can land a second bracelet in less than a week.

A lot of casual observers might see such a double-barreled feat as the result of a good run of cards or just a very good player being overdue. Perhaps a closer look into at just what the first week or so of the Series really looks like to a poker professional like Erick Lindgren might be illuminating.

Friday May 30th, Event #1: $10,000 Pot Limit Hold’em. Erick plays about eight hours before having his set of aces lose to another set with a bigger kicker.

Sunday June 1st, Event #2 Day 1B: $1,500 No Limit Hold’em. Erick is mostly card dead and goes out about mid-way in level three, still time for 18 holes before dusk.

Monday June 2nd, Event #4 (5 PM start): $5,000 Mixed Hold’em. Erick and ninety other players survive day one from a starting field of 332. With 8,400 chips. Erick Lindgren’s name is no where near the top of the leader board; not with the leader over 100,000.

No, I am not rethinking my position on moving the WSOP main event final table to November. I am for it, I have been for it since the first rumors last fall, I remain steadfast in the belief that this is a well thought out move to attract more fans to the Series and to insure continuing television coverage.

What I am hearing from players, both professional and otherwise, is that they are coming around to favor the "November Nine" idea. I certainly understand the initial reaction to such a big change. Lots of folks truly love this game and do not like it changing. I, myself, am not a traditionalist but for a truly moving statement about that aspect of the game, might I recommend an article by Amy Calistri.

As weeks have past and the whole idea has had time to be pondered and debated, more and more players are seeing the rationale for the move. Poker needs a boost and this just might do it. At nearly every table, this move comes up, more and more we hear positive remarks and a good deal of a 'wait and see' attitude. If it doesn't work then they just change it back next year. But it is worth the attempt and I applaud the WSOP staff for moving forward with this; just as I like to acknowledge them for making the summer of 2008 the year of "no tents at the Series". After all, not every experiment works.

I am not so fond of the label: "November Nine". It's just flat and doesn't evoke much. Now if they had asked me for a suggestion, need I point out who came up with Sequestrium last summer? I would have gone for: "The Fall Final". Emphasizes the event not the players and sounds just a bit like The Fall Classic.

It would seem that the good Dr. Pauly and I have been meandering down similar paths regarding how WSOP 2008 will confirm the current state of poker. Fortunately, both Dr. Pauly and the Poker Shrink have Series gigs this year that do not require us to do live tournament reporting. We both bow twice to those intrepid poker writers, bloggers, runners and gunners who are covering the action day to day and hand for hand and we wish them well.

The two doctors are free this summer to explore the deeper and at times darker sides of poker. Together we seem to have come to some of the same conclusions, let me advise those who wish to debate me on the condition of poker in American and around the globe to read what I have to say and then take a look at Dr. Pauly's commentary. We are not here as cheerleaders for poker in general nor the WSOP in specific. It is our job to give you our view from collective years of experience on the poker roads around the world. As I said yesterday, in my opinion, this is the watershed year for poker. Dr. Pauly and I are going to give you what we see happening in Las Vegas this summer as it affects the big picture of poker.

For instance, you find a lot of professional poker players with very divergent views on how poker is fairing these days. The two main camps can be described as:

"The End is Near"
or
"Everything is Fine"

Let me be clear, I do not think the End is Near, however, I do see strong indications that the World Series of 2008 may well be the Last Hurrah of the Poker Boom. I firmly believe numbers will begin to decline as we work our way through the full WSOP schedule and never again will be see a main event as big as 2005-2008. Big tournament poker has jumped the shark, I am only suggesting that everyone involved buy an appropriately sized umbrella.

The players, professional and amateur, who are unwilling to hear this news are not ostriches. They are poker players. However, the professionals I talk to are more than just players, they are in the business of poker and as such must pay attention to the economy of poker.

There is a perfect poker analogy to this economic situation. At the tables, I always marvel at the detail of recall most major professionals have. What they see and remember about poker hands is absolutely phenomenal. I watch the same hands at the same tables and I have a notepad to record anything I see or hear; yet, inevitably when we talk about hands later, they saw more and recall more.

However, away from the tables those laser like observational skills are not always transferable to other aspects of their lives or even to other aspects of poker. I have listened to Daniel Negreanu and Mike Matusow talk about details of the WSOP final table move. Phil Hellmuth has described the marketing issues around publishing poker books. Gavin Smith and Bill Edler have clearly summarized the financial effects of television on poker and speculated on poker after television. These guys pay attention to the whole world of poker. On the other side of the coin, I have had conversations with players who had no idea which tournaments were being taped for television and no concept of why endorsements were or were not given to certain players.

Just because someone can play poker does not mean they understand the financial world of poker away from the tables. Some players are just whistling past the graveyard, hoping for the best and playing their cards. To be a pro at the tables, you play the players not the cards. To be a poker professional away from the tables, you must engage in the business of poker.

I treasure the summer in Las Vegas because they are all here to be asked the same battery of questions. The Poker Shrink will take the pulse of those who play the game both at the table and away from it. I'll keep you informed of what I find and so will Dr. Pauly. The Doctors are in the house.

The 2008 World Series of Poker is off to a great start but when we look back in a few years I predict this will be the year everyone remembers. Already several professionals have told me that they expect this year to be: "the last big year for poker." Why? Well there a number of reasons.

First and foremost, the World Series of Poker is still an American phenomenon. Sure 87 countries were represented at the 2007 WSOP but 95% of the players over the seven weeks of the Series come from the U.S. Right now the U.S. economy is having some hard times. Gas prices are high, prices are up and the dollar is down. This may well be the perfect storm for poker.

Next, the television contacts that have fueled the poker boom are in jeopardy. The WSOP move of the main event final table to November is about ratings on ESPN. If that doesn't work, the decline will be confirmed. In fact, we may know before November just how strong the Series is performing just by watching the registration numbers.

There are other factors. The UIGEA in the States, the continuing trade squabbles among the EU nations, the restricted access to online gaming throughout the Far East, but the highlight of any poker year remains the World Series of Poker. There is no tournament that compares. We may never go back to main events under 1,000 players but the days of 6,000, 7,000, 8,000; those may be gone forever or at least we are on the verge of the Poker Eclipse of 2008.

The summer of 2008 will be long remember as the watershed year of the poker boom. Stay tuned, I will update you on this theme throughout the summer with the numbers and the comments from both players and other insiders who will be living and playing at the Rio for the next seven weeks.

"It was chance created the poker beast; beancounters will kill it."

.
Economics and Poker will clash this summer among the slightly tarnished gaming glitz of Las Vegas. Dispassionate observers of the poker world realize that this may be the watershed moment in the continuation or the demise of the "poker boom" worldwide.

Let's deal with the jingoism first: the United States is not the center of the universe. However, in some areas the U.S. does lead and one of those areas is 'poker as a recreational fad'. The central elements present in the U.S. that have fueled the poker boom are: the high proportion of casinos and card rooms available to the population; a large middle class with disposable income; high amounts of leisure time to pursue gaming as a hobby; relatively lenient social restrictions on gambling. Add to this the holy trinity of: the internet, television hole card cams and Chris Moneymaker; shake and stir and you have the poker boom of the last five years birthed in the United States.

The first nail in the poker coffin was indisputably the passage of the Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act in 2006. While online poker remains available to everyone who is really interested; any trend, craze, furor or fad like all good pyramids needs a constant influx of bodies to provide new fuel and new fodder. The UIGEA strangled that conduit of new poker players in the U.S. and hurt online sites globally that relied on U.S. players. While many internet sites continue to flourish, we all dream of what might have been had the wealth of new U.S. players not been shutoff.

But why will this summer be such a telling moment for poker? Well, the pieces are in place for the perfect storm of economic factors to lay bare the shaky fiscal underpinnings of the poker phenomenon. First and most obviously, the whole world will be watching the World Series, which begins here in Las Vegas in just two weeks. In fact, our first piece of evidence is the change in the WSOP schedule moving the main event final table to November. Clearly, this is an attempt to salvage the declining viewership on ESPN. Sure, sure there are other PR reasons being floated for the experiment but the television numbers don't lie.

While nearly all of the European Union members could be and perhaps should be arguing over the myriad of byzantine online poker regulations; it appears that historical antagonists are now going to verbally spare over the dispute.

The UK House of Lords has condemned the French government and the gambling laws that protect their monopoly on gaming and poker, calling the laws "atrocious." Interestingly, the French have recently given signs of moderating their position and there are certainly more intractable members of the EU on this issue. The French government has certainly delayed its response to pressure from the EU commission on the free trade aspects around online gaming. But one wonders why now? And why point out that the punishment for online gambling is the same as for child pornographers?

Lord James of Blackheath pointed out that the punishment for a French national to place a bet with a British online bookmaker is one year in prison and a Euro 75,000 fine, the same punishment given pedophiles that download child porn.

One wonders if the European Union must now step up and actively pursue one or more countries whose online gaming laws leave them outside the statutory mandates of the EU for free and fair trade.

The Norwegian Poker Championship begins today in Nottingham, England. The Norwegian government has banned poker. The state governed monopoly "Norsk Tipping" does not offer poker and anyone playing poker with money could face criminal prosecution. So, the Norwegian Championship is held outside of Norway at the Dusk Till Dawn casino in Nottingham.

The Norwegian Poker Championship is Norway's largest poker tournament and is expected to attract over 500 Norwegian players. Since the event was launched in 2002, the tournament has experienced rapid growth, this is the 7th running of the event.

With a total estimated prize pool of £350 000, the winner of the Main Event will also receive a complete 2008 WSOP package. The tournament will be covered with live video blogs and full scale TV production of the Main Event final table. A special poker documentary is also planned for the whole 8 day poker festival.

Below is the complete schedule:

This report is offered without commentary or critique. Readers are welcome to draw their own conclusions and scathing commentary is welcome in the comment section. There is a new form of poker being tried in several casinos. The Mirage in Las Vegas is one of the largest poker rooms to give Texas Hold'em Plus a trial run.

"Plus" is played exactly like normal Texas Hold'em except that after the hole cards are dealt and before the first round of betting, each player in turn may discard one of their down cards and replace it for an amount equal to the small blind. The "Plus" bet goes into the pot and the deal then plays out like any other Hold'em hand.

One benefit, of course, is that the house is likely to get a full rake on the game with between $0 and $10 in a $2/$4 game or up to $20 in a $4/$8 game being added to the pot pre-flop.

We observed several tables of "Plus" being played at the Mirage and the most common play was for a player to buy a new down card and then still fold the hand. In effect, as many as 50% of the players were paying a small blind in nearly every hand. Players with an Ace-rag were always willing to buy a new card to go with their Ace.

Hold'em Plus is the first patented poker game played in a poker room, as opposed to table games like Caribbean Stud and Let It Ride. Rooms wishing to offer Hold'em Plus to have to pay a licensing fee to the developer.

"It looks as if the poker boom is surely here to stay."

No that quote and that picture do not go together. I found that optimistic quote while reading my "B" roll of poker blogs and realized it might be time to comment on the growing divide between those who believe the poker boom is still booming and those who are observing what they believe are the ripples after the shark has already reentered the water. [For the purists, I am aware that it was Fonzi what jumped the shark and the shark never jumped anything but Henry Winkler on skis is just not as compelling a picture as Carcharodon carcharias in mid-air.]

So, is interest in poker still going up or is it on the downslide? Well first, it depends. In the United States the trend is definitely on the downside. TV ratings are down; sponsors are bailing from poker shows; tournament buy-ins are off and yes, there are some poker rooms closing. There is, of course, the profound effects of the UIGEA limiting the online access of new players. But in the States the signs are still mixed, new casinos are putting in poker rooms; old rooms are still being remodeled with more space and more staff and some of the smaller tours are doing well. The problem in the U.S. is at the top of the food chain with the World Poker Tour in particular.

In Europe the boom is in full swing, despite the attempts of nearly ever national government to greedily slow down the expansion. The European Union members have been fencing over online poker rights in general and brick and mortar licensing in many instances too. Still the numbers are up on the European Poker Tour but not without some problems regarding size. The card rooms on the continent are not ready to handle 1,000 player tournaments and regional gaming regulators are clearly not as flexible as they are in the States. Remember the World Series of Poker is run in a large convention hall, far from the security of the day-to-day casino operations. Tournaments all over the United States run in big convention halls that few, if any, European casinos have access to without slow moving bureaucratic gaming commission oversight. When it comes to a poker boom; size does matter.

The Latin America Poker Tour (there were two, now one) requires the cooperation and approval of various countries and whatever governmental machinations they might wish to create, invent or impose. Same goes for the various Asian Poker Tours and the melange of countries in Asia that either oppose gambling or wish to restrict gaming within cultural and social boundaries. The boom may well be history in one part of the globe before a single hand of Hold'em is dealt in another.

What does it all mean? We are not completely sure, but we will keep on eye on the various factors pushing, pulling, and eroding the poker boom. One observation is clearly true: Insider's in the poker world have a very different view of the future of poker then does the average player. Not saying the insiders are right, perhaps they are too close to the subject but clearly, things they are a'changin'.

My poker buddies have been having another of our periodic email conversations about a particular poker hand when the term "average stack" came up. Whenever I talk about average stack, there are always players, even very good players who are surprised by the numbers.

Average stack is simply the measure of how many chips each player would have in a tournament if you divide the total chips by remaining players. So you start an event with 10,000 chips each and 500 players, it makes sense that with 250 players remaining the average stack is 20,000. Half the players are out, so everyone should have twice as many chips. Of course, that is not how tournaments actually play and there will be a wide distribution of those 2.5 million chips.

Lots of tournament players keep track of the average stack, it is one of the statistics most good computerized tournament clocks provide. In a smaller field tournament you can keep a fairly accurate count just by knowing the starting field and how many players remain. In big events, you can just consult the tournament clock.

OK, so you have survived Day One of a multi-day tournament and you are just below average stack. What does that mean? Well, what it does not mean is that you are just below the middle of the the field, because average stack is not the middle of the field, at least not once the cards have been dealt. The way poker works is that some player build big stacks and lots of others are short stacked.

In most tournaments at the end of Day One, the average stack will be in the top quarter of the field. On average only around 25% of the field will be above average. If you keep your stack at or around average in the first three quarters of a tournament's playing time, you are actually doing well above average.

As play nears the final table, one of two things will happen to the average stack. Either the 25% rule will roughtly remain in effect and the final table will begin with several small stacks and a couple of big stacks or the big stacks will take out all of the small stacks as play approaches the final table and the final nine will be fairly equal in stacks, as they all have feasted on the short stacks equally.

Note: the longer a tournament runs, the higher the average stack percentage can go. In major tournaments of four or five days, players below average stack will at times be more than 80% of the field.

The World Poker Tour has been making some news recently; let's see what they have been up to. First, they announced that as part of the WPT Championship of the current season six, currently underway at Bellagio in Las Vegas; as part of that celebration, they would be giving all former winners (96 of them!) a WPT Championship bracelet. There will be a big ceremony and nearly everyone has said: "So what? The WSOP gives bracelets, why is the WPT coming out with a copycat bit of bling at the end of six years of tournaments?"

Next, WPT Enterprises announced that Grup Peralada's Casino Barcelona will host its second World Poker Tour event May 21 – 27, 2008. But it really isn't on the official WPT schedule, it will not be taped for television and, well and what? Seems a bit like a placeholder and not a real tour stop.

Finally, there was the announcement of the World Poker Tour Canada. A completely separate Canadian WPT, which will begin on May 5th with the Coast to Coast Poker Tournament at the River Rock Casino Resort. The Coast to Coast Poker Championships will be the first stop for World Poker Tour Canada but no further sites or dates have been announced.

Perhaps before the World Series of Poker gets underway late next month, perhaps we should take a look at the World Poker Tour and see just how well they are doing. Time for a World Poker Tour report card. Coming next week.