Wsop 2007

By: Poker Shrink – December 04, 2007

chipreeseThere will be dozens if not hundreds of articles and blogs commemorating the passing of David "Chip" Reese. I would like to do something a bit different and give you my most recent memory of a truly great poker player.

This past summer during the World Series of Poker, one of my assignments was to follow three or four players during the course of a tournament and write a running blog of their impressions. As you might imagine, lots of pros are eager to do this at the beginning of a tournament but if the day does not go well, they are less interested in talking to someone from the media late in the day as their chipstack shrinks.

One day I was working with Chip, which meant passing by his table a couple of times an hour to watch for a few hands and then catching him at each break and getting his take on the previous two levels of the tournament. Chip, always the professional, gave me great stuff no matter how his tournament was going and he presented the information in near perfect copy. He knew what my job was and he delivered his thoughts on the tournament so that my editing job would be minimal.

Beyond that Chip also knew that both of our jobs could get boring, so after the printable blog material I would turn off the digital recorder and he would tell me about his current table; who were the weak players, who might be on tilt and even how he was going to attack certain players and avoid others. We both knew this was not for immediate internet release. Imagine watching a professional poker player during a tournament and knowing how he intends to play each of the other players at the table and then watching him execute that game plan. Truly a unique experience.

I like Chip Reese, most of people in the poker world do and that is a sentence that need not be placed in the past tense.

 
By: Poker Shrink – August 18, 2007

asianweek

Asian Week magazine ran a featured story on World Series of Poker Champion, Jerry Yang. The article suggests that the refugee life and the psychological imprint that left on Jerry and on runner-up Tuan Lam, also a refugee, has had a major effect on how they play poker. The excerpt of the article below makes a compelling case that early life events will have an influence on how someone plays poker.

Here is the Asian Week story:

It’s 4 a.m. in a marathon 16-hour session on the seventh day of the biggest poker tournament in the world. Jerry Yang, 39, from Temecula, Calif., is about to make a decision that could change his life. Sitting across Yang is Toronto’s Tuan Lam, 40, who has put on maximum pressure by going all-in for 22.2 million chips, thus putting his own tournament life at risk.

Such actions might reduce a normal person to a gelatinous mess. For both Lam and Yang, it seems but a trifle considering the odds they have already beaten outside the casino. They both have a refugee’s nerve: Yang, of Hmong descent, is from Laos. Lam hails from South Vietnam.

The two cards they hold in their hand are nothing compared to the small boats they clung to as young boys, fleeing their homeland and crossing the ocean to find the safety of a refugee camp.

Little wonder then that Yang takes a scant ten seconds to make the call.

That courageous move helped Yang become king of the poker world, winning this year’s World Series of Poker main event and $8.25 million, the largest individual prize in all of sport.

To win, Yang outlasted 6,358 competitors, who paid $10,000 each to compete for a total prize pool worth $60 million. For second place, Lam received $4.84 million.

It was a staggering but fitting payout for two men who know how to beat high odds, and who turned this year’s final into the battle of the refugees.

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 27, 2007

jy

In preparation for the WSOP Main Event Final Table last week, I wrote a short piece on each of the nine players. These are all to be found below. Now its time to see how Jerry Yang has faired in the press since he won the most coveted title in poker.

Yang showed us in his interviews following his win that’s he’s humble and yet proud of his accomplishment,” said Lance Bradley, Editor of ThePokerBiz.com. “It’s a breath of fresh air for the industry to have an ambassador like Yang. Hopefully he carries the mantle better than his predecessor did.”
---
"Yang is the anti-Gold!" This one has been heard in several variations throughout the industry.
---

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 24, 2007

frankensteinSequestrium: a tent-like structure erected in the middle of the 2007 World Series of Poker main tournament room. The purpose of the edifice was to isolate the final table players of a tournament in order to provide security and fairness to the play while the action is being webcast with hole card cameras by Bluff Media. The webcast was on approximately a one hour delay. The isolation of the players was deemed necessary in order to prevent hole card information from being relayed to the players either in real time or with a short delay, which would create an unfair advantage to the player or players receiving the information.

WSOP Commissioner Jeffery Pollack has called the use of the Sequestrium “an experiment” and he has promised that if it was found not to be in the best interest of the World Series and the players, it would be abandoned for next year. The “experiment” was one of several innovations that Harrah’s has attempted to bring wider coverage of the WSOP and to broaden the fan base. According to WSOP staff, the purpose of the Sequestrium was to allow poker fans not in Las Vegas to see several WSOP final tables in nearly real time and to see them in their unedited entirety with hole card cameras and professional commentary. To see the 17 final tables that were webcast, you had to subscribe to a WSOP webcast package for $49.95.

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 17, 2007

newsAs various news agencies pick up the final table lineup, I am going to look at what poker and non-poker sources have to say about this year's Final Table Nine.

This from Business Wire:

Jerry Yang is a 39-year-old psychologist and social worker from Southern California. He holds a Masters Degree in health psychology. Yang was born in Laos; he is married and has six children. Yang started playing poker only two years ago. He won a seat into the main event via a satellite tournament. His total investment in this event is $225. The socially-conscious Yang is determined to give something back to charity. He is pledging 10 percent of his winnings from this tournament to three different charities – the Make-A-Wish Foundation, Feed the Children, and the Ronald McDonald House.

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 17, 2007

newsAs various news agencies pick up the final table lineup, I am going to look at what poker and non-poker sources have to say about this year's Final Table Nine.

From Poker Listings:

As one of three players at the Main Event final table with no live poker history in the Hendon Mob database, Lee Childs appears to be one of those unknowns who pop up every year and gets their time in the spotlight at the WSOP.

Childs was raised in Virginia where he now resides in Reston with his wife. He was working as a software engineer, but recently gave it up to pursue a full-time poker career. His specialty is online multi-table tournaments and this is his first appearance at the World Series.

It's been a good tournament for the 35-year-old, whose run so far has included busting Jennifer Tilly and now guaranteeing himself at least $500,000 for making the final table.

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 17, 2007

newsAs various news agencies pick up the final table lineup, I am going to look at what poker and non-poker sources have to say about this year's Final Table Nine.

From Business Wire:

Alex Kravchenko is a 36-year-old businessman originally from Archangel, USSR. He has been playing poker for about eight years. He is married and has two children. Kravchenko became the first Russian citizen in history to win a WSOP gold bracelet when he was victorious in the $1,500 buy-in Omaha High-Low championship at this year's WSOP – in what was the largest Omaha High-Low field in history. Russian immigrants have won previously at the World Series, but Kravchenko's victory was clearly a milestone. Kravchenko has an impressive history of poker tournament wins in Europe. He won the Austrian Masters Pot-Limit Championship in 2001. He also won the Russian Pot-Limit Championship held that same year. He also won a Limit Hold'em title at the Helsinki Frezeout in 2002. He has cashed over 30 times in what is becoming an illustrious poker career.

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 17, 2007

newsAs various news agencies pick up the final table lineup, I am going to look at what poker and non-poker sources have to say about this year's Final Table Nine.

From Online-Casino News:

Raymond Rahme from South Africa is the oldest player at 62 years.

Rahme is from Johannesburg and is a retired entrepreneur who was successful in the auto body business and owned several bed & breakfast hotels.

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 17, 2007

newsAs various news agencies pick up the final table lineup, I am going to look at what poker and non-poker sources have to say about this year's Final Table Nine.

Lam took second place in the six-handed no-limit hold'em event in the 2005 PokerStars World Championship of Online Poker for $55,000, according to the PokerStars Blog. Although he's played a few $10,000 live events, he's never had a huge cash. Now, he's on the verge of the world's biggest cash of the year and the second biggest prize in poker history.

At 40 years old, his face looks a lot younger. Hailing from Canada, it's been pretty common to see Lam break his poker face and crack a smile at his friends on the rail. During slow periods in the game, he walks over to them and speaks in rapid-fire Vietnamese.

A one-time dealer, Lam now spends his life playing online poker. Whatever he's learned there seems to be serving him well at this year's World Series of Poker, the PokerStars Blog points out.

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 17, 2007

newsAs various news agencies pick up the final table lineup, I am going to look at what poker and non-poker sources have to say about this year's Final Table Nine.

From Business Wire:

Jon Kalmar is a 34-year-old professional poker player, who competes mostly in clubs located in the north and the Midlands region of England. He is married with one child. Among his prior accomplishments, Kalmar was once the lead singer in a punk rock band. Before entering this year’s world championship, Kalmar admitted to enduring a “terrible” run of bad fortune at this year’s World Series of Poker. He failed to cash a single time in the preliminary tournaments. But everything changed the night before the main event began. Dejected, Kalmar tried to switch his airline ticket and return home early. But he was told the cost to change his departure from Las Vegas back to England would be about $600. So instead, Kalmar decided to enter the last mega-satellite at the Rio just before the start of the main event. He ended up winning a $10,000 seat.

UK Poker Player:

There will be a British player at the final table of the 2007 World Series of Poker Main Event.

Jon 'Skalie' Kalmar, from Chorley in Lancashire, will sit down at 12 noon Vegas time on 17 July to contest the biggest prize in poker. He had a fantastic Day 6, beginning on 2.6 million in chips before shifting throught the gears, and ending up on 20.3 million.

He is now superbly positioned, in third place in chips, to have a real crack at taking down the big one. Not bad for a player who won his Main Event seat through a $500 super satellite in Las Vegas, the Sunday before the $10,000 World Championship event began.

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 16, 2007

newsAs various news agencies pick up the final table lineup, I am going to look at what poker and non-poker sources have to say about this year's Final Table Nine.

This from the HendonMob database:

02-Jul-07 United States $ 1,000 No Limit Hold'em
38th World Series of Poker (WSOP) 2007, Las Vegas 60th $ 8,067

16-Jun-07 United States $ 1,500 No Limit Hold'em
38th World Series of Poker (WSOP) 2007, Las Vegas 107th $ 4,108

19-Jul-06 United States $ 2,500 Pot Limit Hold'em
37th World Series of Poker (WSOP) 2006, Las Vegas 30th $ 4,524

09-Jul-06 United States $ 10,000 Pot Limit Omaha
37th World Series of Poker (WSOP) 2006, Las Vegas 1st $ 655,746

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 16, 2007

newsAs various news agencies pick up the final table lineup, I am going to look at what poker and non-poker sources have to say about this year's Final Table Nine.

From the Detroit News:

Philip Hilm, a 31-year-old Dane making a living playing poker online in England, was the chip leader with 22.07 million.

Interview with Philip Hilm from PokerTips.

PokerTips: When did you start playing poker?

Philip Hilm: Between October and December 2003, I was demonstrating and selling coffee machines in supermarkets. It was a lousy job, but I needed the money to buy Christmas presents. Around that time a friend of mine, who had been a professional backgammon player for 4 or 5 years, started playing poker and introduced it to me. I decided to give it a real shot, so I studied and practiced intensely. After one month I was making 3 times the money playing poker in the evening, than I did at my job. The decision was easy, and I never looked back.
Interview continues after break:

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 16, 2007

newsAs various news agencies pick up the final table lineup, I am going to look at what poker and non-poker sources have to say about this year's Final Table Nine.

From the Poughkeepsie Journal:

Poughkeepsie resident Hevad Khan is making poker history.

The 2002 Spackenkill High School graduate has reached the final table at the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas. Out of 6,358 players who began the event, only 9 remain. Khan sits in seventh place with 9,205,000 chips.

The final table will be played Tuesday, with the overall winner earning $8.25 million. Khan can do no worse than a $525,934 check for finishing ninth.

From Poker King:

The best known online player left in the field is Hevad "Rain" Khan, who is currently sitting with 9.205 million in chips and is sitting in the nine seat. Khan is a very well-known online player, known for his 30 table sessions. Khan won numerous seats to the World Series of Poker through online satellites on Pokerstars.

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 16, 2007

eiffelSo how did the 36 players on Day Six finished based on starting chip stacks. Once again the chipleader fell as did most but not all of the short stacks.

David Tran began Day Six in 1st place but could not maintain his advantage and finished 14th place. Here is the entire field:

David Tran 1st [14th]
Philip Hilm 2nd FINAL TABLE
Ray Henson 3rd [12th]
Hevad Khan 4th FINAL TABLE
Kevin Farry 5th [17th]
Scott Freeman 6th [19th]
Lee Childs 7th FINAL TABLE
Jerry Yang 8th FINAL TABLE
Kenny Tran 9th [16th]
William Spadea 10th [13th]
Tuan Lam 11th FINAL TABLE
Lee Watkinson 12th FINAL TABLE
Stefan Mattsson 13th [22nd]
Raymond Rahme 14th FINAL TABLE
Ronald Kluber 15th [29th]
Bill Edler 16th [23rd]
John Kalmer 17th FINAL TABLE
John Armbrust 18th [18th]
Peter Darvill 19th [31st]
Hoa Nguyen 20th [34th]
Bob Slezak 21st [15th]
Jason Welch 22nd [21st]
Steven Garfinkle 23rd 10th
Jeff Bryan 24th [27th]
Mikkel Madsen 25th [20th]
Christian Togsverd 26th [33rd]
Daniel Alaei 27th [25th]
Scotty Nguyen 28th [11th]
Ryan Elson 29th [24th]
Paulo Loureiro 30th [28th]
Alex Kravchenko 31st FINAL TABLE
Jason Koshi 32nd [30th]
Roy Winston 33rd [26th]
Allan King 34th [35th]
Kevin Kim 35th [32nd]
Robin Bergren 36th [36th]

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 14, 2007

pisaYes it's that time again. Time for my favorite poker analysis tool: Does Chip Stack Size Matter?

For the remainder of this year's WSOP Championship Event, I will be tracking just how the top 112 players finished based on their chip stack position at various places in time.

We begin today with the list as of the beginning of Day Five in order from 1 to 112. Later, I will also offer the same analysis on Day Six and for the Final Table. But for statistical purposes and just for fun, I will also keep the post below up-to-date.

So what is your best guess:
-who will be the lowest chip stack to make the final table?
-where is the $8.25M winner on this list?
-which short stack will make the biggest move up the money ladder?

Stay tuned for all the details. Here is our starting 112 for today with all of the 37 thru 112 bustouts.

Notice neither the top 5 nor the bottom 15 survived.

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 14, 2007

party

SUNDAY, July 15: Both Party Poker players have moved from Day Five to Day Six!

Only 36 players remain in the Main Event.

Philip Hilm 9,950,000 (currently in 2nd place)

Peter Darvill
2,430,000 (19th place)

Each will earn at least $285,678.

.

.

SATURDAY, July 14: Two Party Poker qualifiers have advanced to Day Five of the WSOP Main Event.

Philip Hilm Cambridge, UK 1,183,000
Peter Darvill Vancouver, BC 441,000

.

.


FRIDAY, July 13:
Four Party Poker qualifiers finished in the money on Day Four of the WSOP Main Event:

Tinten Oliver (223rd $51,398)
Sebastian Zink (231st $45,422)
Chris Lines (260th $45,422)
Jason Melross (280th $45,422)

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 14, 2007

5A potentially long day (or two) awaits the 112 remaining players in the Main Event of the 2007 World Series of Poker. Before the end of tomorrow's action on Day Six, the 112 players must play down to 9 for the Final Table.

In order to do that here is the announced schedule for today and tomorrow.

Starting at 12:00 PDT today, the players will play five two-hour rounds or until they reach 27 players; however, if at the end of the fifth level today, they have still not reached 36 players, then play will continue until 36 players remain.

On Day Six, tomorrow, the 27 to 36 players will reconvene and play as long as necessary to reach the Final Table Nine.

The problem?

One Hundred and Twelve players translates to an average stack of 1,139,375.
Thirty-Six players equals an average stack of 3,532,222.
Twenty-Seven players would begin with 4,709,630 in their average stack.

Today with an average stack of 1.14 million, blinds resume at 10,000/20,000 with a 3,000 ante.

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 13, 2007

newWeek Two of the 2007 World Series of Poker $10,000 Main Event.
Week Seven of the 2007 World Series of Poker.
The Last Week finally!

Here is how we begin and how we estimate the week will go. Today is the official "Day Four" of the Main Event after four "Day Ones", two "Day Twos" and one "Day Three".

Thursday Day 3: 797 played down to 337
Friday Day 4: 337 played down to 112
Saturday Day 5: 112 played to 36
Sunday Day 6: 36 played down to 9
Monday Day 0: Day Off

Tuesday, July 17th
: Final Table

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 13, 2007

averageA lot of players assume when they hear "average stack" that half of the field has more than average and the other half less. But "on average" there are always more players below than above the average stack. Numbers for the first seven days of the WSOP Main Event not only support that assumption but also show just how closely even a multi-day field mirrors the average stack math.

Day 1A had 59.95% of the field below average stack at the end of play.
Day 1B had 59.08% of the field below average stack.
Day 1C had 58.03% of the field below average stack.
Day 1D had 59.43% of the field below average stack.

Day 2A ended with 60.24% of the players below average stack.
Day 2B ended with 60.01% of the players below average stack.

Day 3 had 59.8% below average stack when played ended last night.

Even more interesting perhaps is that when I told several pros about these numbers, they were all surprised how low the 'below' number was. Their experience is that two-thirds of the field is generally below average.

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 13, 2007

4cStill standing for Day Four are 337 players from the original 6358. Everyone still in the field is guaranteed $39,445. An average stack is now 377,330.

The percentage of "known" players (at least known to me) has risen from 9% of the field yesterday to 12% today, which means that there is a 12% chance that I could have picked out the 2007 Champ at a table before this week. For the regular poker fan, here is the list of remaining "name" players:

Dario Minieri 2,398,000
Kenny Tran 1,175,000
Robert Neitrayan 1,058,000
Gus Hansen 1,044,000
Isaac Haxton 791,000
Kirk Morrison 772,000
Francois Safleddine 748,000
Lee Watkinson 737,000
Bill Edler 673,000
Sorel Mizzi 603,000

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 12, 2007

UPDATE: Tinten Olivier reaches Day Four! Still short-stacked at 115,000; Tinten has outlasted over 6,000 players as he enters Day Four of the Main Event. He is guaranteed to earn at least $39,445.

tintenTinten Olivier, a Party Poker WSOP qualifier, is having quite a run in the $10,000 Main Event. Tinten lives in Paris, France and is attending his first World Series of Poker.

After leading all players on Day 1A with 270,500, Tinten had an up and down Day 2A on Tuesday but survived to enter today's Day 3 with 238,000.

His table today will break in the early rounds but this is his opening round draw:

196 2 Chris Crilly San Clemente, CA 191,600
196 1 Jay Perkins San Antonio, TX 55,000
196 9 Joshua Van Dyke Rindge, NH 132,000
196 8 Michael Bakke Ashland, OR 42,900
196 7 Mike Laing Franklin, PA 209,400
196 6 Sam Ditson London, UK 131,800
196 3 Esfandiar Dara New York, NY 235,400
196 5 Jorge Albalat Spain 153,500
196 4 Tinten Olivier Paris, France 238,000

UPDATE: Table 196 was indeed broken and Tinten was moved to the ESPN feature table with this lineup:

Seat 1: Tinten Olivier
Seat 3: Gus Hansen
Seat 4: Matthew Hilger
Seat 5: Greg Huffman
Seat 6: John Duthie
Seat 7: Shawn Chaconas
Seat 8: Brian Miller
Seat 9: Kenneth Stead

-a much tougher table but some television time thrown in to compensate.

photo credit: Amy Calistri

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 12, 2007

door3aThursday July 12th

797 players begin Day Three

621 will be paid (scroll down for payout list)

127,160,000 chips in play

159,548 Average Stack

59.8% below average stack

197 players (25% of the field) have less than 10 times a single round of blinds and antes (M).

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 12, 2007

listsAll 797 of them:

Gus Hansen 622,300
Hevad Khan 592,500
Jeff Banghart 570,100
Jeff Weiss 550,000
Jon Monves 549,800
Brent Sheirbon 549,300
Tuan Lam 538,500
Markus Gonsalves 512,400
Bradley Ellis 509,400
Robert Nehorayan 505,700
Richard Weisman 495,400
Yuan-I Hsieh 489,900
Bill Edler 486,700
Kenny Tran 484,900
Alex Melnikow 480,100
Sorel Mizzi 457,100
Christian Toth 452,900
Andy Philachack 451,500
Conor Tate 440,000
Patrick Huse 431,100
Ryan Lawrence 429,500
Kevin Kim 422,600
Cory Carroll 419,900
Rick Munro 417,600
Jerry Yang 415,500

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 11, 2007

menthemasterLife actually continues in Las Vegas during the seven weeks of the World Series of Poker. On Monday I stopped by a Home Depot on the way in the Rio for Day 1G or 2F or something. Anyway, in the parking lot I ran into Men "The Master" Nguyen on his way in to buy some flowers for his yard. He told me that he was taking a day off (he had busted out of the WSOP Main Event) but on Tuesday he was going to play in a little "second chance" tournament at Bellagio.

Men was, of course, referring to the Bellagio Cup III $10,000 Final Event.

Just a little second chance tournament....

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 11, 2007

3c
With 350 players moving on to Day Three from Day 2A, we now await the survivor number from today's Day 2B. We will have this number just after midnight tonight and we will have our starters for Day 3 tomorrow.

The 350 Day 2A players will bring with them an average stack of 161,248; since Day 2B has more players beginning the day, the simple math tells us that chip stack average translates into 433 players from Day 2B making it to midnight. Surprisingly despite the wide variation in entrants each day thus far, the average chip stacks have been very similiar.

So the math predicts 433 players will move on from Day 2B to Day 3; the actual number was 447 with an average chip count of 157,763.

Here are some 'names' who have moved through to Day Three:

Complete list of Day 3 players can be found above.

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 10, 2007

c0mparison
We have put the multiple Day Ones behind us now. No more late registrations, no more speculation about field size or prize pool. Moving on to phase two of the WSOP Main Event, we now begin two Day Twos before finally getting the entire field in one room on Thursday. Here is a look at how these two "Day Two" flights compare.

Day 2A had 1033 starters.
Day 2B had 1303 starters.

Day 2A had 5,664,000 chips in play.
Day 2B had 7,052,000 chips in play.

Day 2A began with an average stack of 54,831.
Day 2B begins with an average stack of 54,121.

Day 2A was halted at 00:04 with 348 players remaining.
Day 2A was halted at 00:04 with 459 players remaining.

One in four of the remaining players will make the money. (621 represents 26% of the 2349 Day Two players).

For the Math Freaks in the audience, I will continue to update the several analysis below as numbers come in.

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 10, 2007

arrow3[Most Recent Update: Friday July 13th, 08:15 PDT, GMT -8:00]

For the first four days of the WSOP Main Event, we are bit a fixated on the numbers. Numbers for registrations, numbers for average chip stacks and numbers of players - even a list of name players moving on to Day 2A & 2B.

One of the questions we are exploring is whether starting your Day One with fewer players is an advantage or disadvantage to your odds of making it deep into the Main Event. Would less chips in play be a disadvantage to you? Or is that balanced by fewer players? Is it all about the other eight or nine playes at your table? Or is there some elusive advantage to how many players are in the room with you? Inquiring Minds wonder if there are any answers or if we even know what the right questions are?

Well we know there is ONE QUESTION: How do you keep the combined fields in the separate Day Twos balanced? A question unanswered this year....

The SIX posts directly below are being updated as new numbers are received; check back to keep up with the Math of the Main Event.

Officially, first place will received $8,250,000 and 621 places will be paid.

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 09, 2007

news1Here is what the numbers have looked like for the first six days of the Main Event. Actual figures are in BOLD; the other numbers are projections based on past tournament experience.

(* = estimates)
(BOLD = actual numbers)

7/6 Day 1A: 445 to Day 2A [1287 starters]
7/7 Day 1B: 588 to Day 2A [1545 starters]
7/8 Day 1C: 667 to Day 2B [1743 starters]
7/9 Day 1D: 636 to Day 2B [1783 starters]

7/10 Day 2A: 1,033** played down to 350
7/11 Day 2B: 1,303** played down to 447

**official numbers

7/12 Day 3: 797 playing down to 337
7/13 Day 4: 337 playing down to 100
7/14 Day 5: 100 playing down to 27
7/15 Day 6: 27 playing down to 9
7/16 Day 7: Day Off

July 17th: Final Table

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 09, 2007

chip trick3When there are multiple Day One's of a tournament, there is always the potential for certain players having a statistical advantage over the players who start on the other days.

Here is an up-to-date comparison of chip stacks for the four Day Ones of the 2007 World Series of Poker.

Day 1A: 1287 entrants; 447 to Day 2A; 34.7% of field to Day 2A; average stack 57,584.

Day 1B: 1545 entrants; 589 to Day 2A; 38.1% of field to Day 2A; average stack 52,462.

Even though more chips were in play on Day 1B, the average stack for Day 1A players is 5,122 higher.

Day 1C: 1743 entrants; 672 to Day 2B; 38.6% of field to Day 2B; average stack 52,054.

Even more chips in play on Day 1C with both average stack and % survivors in line with Day 1B.

Day 1D: 1783 entrants; 641 to Day 2B; 35.95% of field to Day 2B; average stack 55,008.

Fewer players moved on from Day 1D and even though this was the biggest starting field the average chip stack is 2nd only to Day 1A.

 
By: Poker Shrink – July 09, 2007

construction Day 1A and Day 1B will be combined to play Day 2A on Tuesday and Day 1C and Day 1D will play in Day 2B on Wednesday. We have been speculating about how the difference in total entrants for those four days may have affected the players chances later in the tournament.

Here are a couple of random looks at how the first three days differed.

Day 1A has 4 players over 200K in chips going into Day 2A.
Day 1B has 1 player over 200K in chips going into Day 2A.
Day 1C has 3 players over 200K in chips going into Day 2B.
Day 1C has 1 player over 200K in chips going into Day 2B.

Day 1A has 64 players over 100K in chips entering Day 2A.
Day 1B has 57 players over 100K in chips entering Day 2A.
Day 1C has 50 players over 100K in chips entering Day 2B.
Day 1D has 75 players over 100K in chips entering Day 2B.

Day 1A has 41 players below 20K (starting stack) in chips for Day 2A.
Day 1B has 75 players below 20K (starting stack) in chips for Day 2A.
Day 1C has 84 players below 20K (starting stack) in chips for Day 2B.
Day 1D has 77 players below 20K (starting stack) in chips for Day 2B.

Day 1A has 121 players between 20K (starting stack) and 40K (double up).
Day 1B has 185 players between 20K (starting stack) and 40K (double up).
Day 1C has 198 players between 20K (starting stack) and 40K (double up).
Day 1D has 252 players between 20K (starting stack) and 40K (double up).

Day 1A has 59.95% of the field below average stack.
Day 1B has 59.08% of the field below average stack.
Day 1C has 58.03% of the field below average stack.
Day 1D has 59.43% of the field below average stack.

Some random observations:
-to build a big stack, a smaller field seems to help;
-the bigger field has proportionately more short stacks and the smaller field has more big stacks;
-players on Day 1B & 1C were more cautious, at least that was the observation of most the the media watching the event; perhaps there is a "Day 1A Frenzy Factor" yet to be investigated;
-almost exactly the same % of players below average in all three events.

You heard it hear first! Announcing the discovery of the 60/60 Rule.

60/60 Rule of Thumb for Day Ones: Slightly more than 60% of the field will bust on Day One and slightly less than 60% of the Day Two players will start the day with less than an average stack.